SCB EIC raises Thailand’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.8% due to improved exports and private investment. However, growth remains below potential amid geopolitical and domestic challenges.
SCB EIC has raised its economic growth forecast for Thailand in 2026 to 1.8%, up from the previous estimate of 1.5%. This revision reflects improved export performance and increased private investment driven by a global economic recovery, particularly in AI technology and electronic goods. Despite this positive outlook, Thailand’s overall economic growth remains below its potential due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and structural challenges within the country.
Private sector investments are beginning to pick up, aided by foreign direct investment and a rebound in construction activities. However, government spending may slow down after significant economic stimulus in the last quarter of 2025. The Bank of Thailand is expected to reduce its policy rate to 1% to support economic activities, particularly among vulnerable households and SMEs.
Globally, SCB EIC anticipates a 2.7% growth in 2026, primarily driven by investments in AI and digital goods, which mitigate geopolitical pressures. While monetary policy remains accommodative, inflation risk persists, particularly in the U.S. As such, global financial conditions might stabilize but are unlikely to ease significantly given the inflationary pressures in various nations.
