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Despite being a member of the EU since 2007 and NATO since 2004, it is not since the fall of Ceaușescu in 1989 that the international community’s attention has been so focused on Romania. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and indirect attacks on the EU by Russia, the country’s presidential election is now considered a pilot case that communicates a very clear message: the stability of Romania is the stability of Europe itself.
The unexpected first-round victory of far-right, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu in November 2024 eventually led to a recount and the annulment of the elections by the Constitutional Court, due to suspected Russian interference. Only in recent months, after sluggish investigations, has Georgescu been accused of – among other things – falsifying campaign finance declarations and forming fascist and xenophobic groups. After attempting to run for the rescheduled elections on 4 and 18 May, Georgescu was excluded by the Central Electoral Office and the Constitutional Court due to extremist activities, for which he is still under investigation.
How is Romania dealing with the pre-election period? Ilie Bolojan of the National Liberal Party (PNL) is currently the acting president, following the resignation of Klaus Iohannis, and eleven candidates are contesting the election. Among these is Elena Lasconi, who came second in the November elections. The president of the Save Romania Union (USR, liberal) is determined to capitalise on that result, which positioned her as a champion of democracy and Europeanism. More recently, however, polls have placed Lasconi at only 5 percent of voting intentions, causing the USR to withdraw its support in favour of Nicușor Dan, the mayor of Bucharest. Lasconi then won a lawsuit against USR, which ruled, however, that she could not use party funds for the campaign.
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According to an AtlasIntel poll published in mid-April, Dan, a founder of the USR but now running as an independent candidate, stands at 21.2 % of voting intentions. Just ahead of Dan is Crin Antonescu, the candidate of the pro-European governing coalition (Social Democratic Party, PNL and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania), with 24.7 %. In first place is George Simion of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR, right-wing populist) with 33.4 %. Many of the voters intending to vote for Simion are those that would have voted for Georgescu. Currently, the far right represents a third of the Romanian parliament, and includes Anamaria Gavrilă’s Party of Young People, and MEP Diana Șoșoaca’s S.O.S. Romania. Polling in fourth place is the independent Victor Ponta (9.7 %), a former social-democratic prime minister, who is running on a Trump-like, populist platform.
