Sunday’s snap election is being held two months after Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s government fell as a result of the so-called Spinumviva scandal.
The center-right politician’s integrity was called into question after the Portuguese press began reporting on Spinumviva — a data protection consultancy controlled by Montenegro’s family, with clients including several companies that hold government contracts. Although the center-right politician denied any conflict of interest and survived several censure motions filed against his minority government, he eventually stepped down after losing a confidence vote in parliament in March.
Pre-election polls suggest that the center-right bloc led by the Democratic Alliance coalition has a narrow lead over the center-left bloc led by the Socialist Party, but as was the case when voters went to the polls 14 months ago, neither side is expected to secure a governing majority in the parliament.
The Chega party is expected to once again net the third-largest share of the ballots. Montenegro has ruled out any sort of governing agreement with the ultranationalist group, which leaves Portugal’s governability in doubt.
Last year, Socialist Party leader Pedro Nuno Santos opted for constructive collaboration and ordered his party to abstain in critical votes, which enabled Montenegro to both form a minority government and, later, pass a crucial budget bill. But relations between the two main parties have soured in the wake of last March’s failed confidence vote, and it’s unclear if the center left will be willing to permit the center-right to govern this time around.
If Montenegro’s government does get shot down by the parliament, Santos will be called on to try his luck — but he would be similarly rejected by center-right lawmakers, leaving the country in limbo.
