Opinion polls suggest otherwise, however, with the SPD polling in the mid-teens following the collapse of Scholz’s center-left coalition earlier this month. Friedrich Merz’s opposition Christian Democrats lead on 33 percent, followed by the far-right opposition Alternative for Democracy at 18 percent.
At home, Scholz has been panned for weak leadership of his fractious “traffic light” coalition with the Greens and liberal Free Democrats. And abroad, he has failed in the eyes of many to keep his promise of a Zeitenwende — or historic turn — to a more assertive foreign and security policy following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
He campaigned in the June European election by profiling himself as a Friedenskanzler (“chancellor of peace”) only to lose. Unfazed, he has been shaping to re-up that pitch in a snap election, expected to be held in February following a parliamentary vote of confidence that he is almost certain to lose in mid-December.
The Scholz relaunch has got off to a disastrous start, after he shocked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and angered Western allies last week by making his first phone call in two years to Russian President Vladimir Putin. That was followed the next day by the heaviest Russian aerial attack on Ukraine in months.
Scholz, despite repeatedly proclaiming his support for Ukraine, has ruled out sending long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine — even as the United States, the United Kingdom and France have sent their own weapons and loosened restrictions on their use to allow Ukraine to strike military targets within Russia.
