At stake is not just who gets to be president, but whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Trzaskowski’s party boss, can get his agenda off the ground after nearly two years of obstructionism by President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally. For PiS, the outcome will determine whether the defeat the party suffered in the 2023 parliamentary election was just a temporary setback.
Trzaskowski and Nawrocki are virtually level in the polls ahead of the June 1 runoff, suggesting that even small shifts in voter attitudes or turnout could decide the outcome. In the first round of the presidential vote on May 18, Trzaskowski edged ahead with just under 31.4 percent of the vote, while Nawrocki followed closely with 29.5 percent.
The far right’s surprisingly strong showing among the other contenders could prove critical to the final result. Sławomir Mentzen of the Konfederacja party came in third with 14.8 percent, and the anti-Semitic and anti-EU agitator Grzegorz Braun unexpectedly secured 6.3 percent to place fourth.
The far right thus leapfrogged past the centrist and left contenders, who only garnered around 14 percent collectively among three candidates.
Tight spot
That has placed Trzaskowski in a tight spot, needing to appeal both to far-right and left-wing voters, while also mobilizing his core supporters to show up in greater numbers at polling stations on June 1.
“Your mobilization is essential because it will really be a razor-thin margin,” Trzaskowski said during the debate. “Choose a president who simply likes people. Choose a president who respects others. Choose a president for whom values like honesty and ordinary human decency are principles that guide his life,” Trzaskowski said.
