As Indian markets bid adieu to a topsy-turvy year and welcome 2026, UBS Wealth Management CIO Hartmut Issel believes things could get much in the new year, tipping Nifty to reach the 30,000 mark.
Issel believes India’s stock market is poised for a second consecutive year of earnings acceleration, potentially driving the Nifty near the magic figure by the end of 2026.
“We don’t expect many markets where we see an uptick in earnings the second year probably in a row,” Issel told NDTV Profit. “In India’s case… we’re quite convinced the fiscal year 27 earnings uplift will be even higher than it was in the current year.”
Issel believes that corporate earnings could be the main driver of this Nifty milestone, potentially outweighing concerns about global trade negotiations or even valuation hurdles, for that matter. He believes the index could rise about 10% in 2026.
“If I look at the end of that calendar year, we should be up I think… slightly above, actually, 10%, so you know close to 30,000 on the Nifty. This is I think a very fair assumption,” he said.
While sentiment has certainly been hit by India still failing to reach a trade deal agreement with the US, Issel downplayed the impact of the uncertainty, stating that major sectors such as pharma and IT are already exempt from Trump Tariffs.
“Investors have never really looked at it so much from the equity side in the first place,” Issel said regarding the trade deal.
“When it hasn’t had a negative impact really on the stock market in the first place, then sort of coming to a negotiation… should also not by itself pull up the index either,” he added.
Instead, UBS is focusing on sector fundamentals. Issel pointed to financials as attractive due to favourable valuations while highlighting that the consumption sector, where falling inflation could boost affordability and drive premiumisation.
