A new report suggests that Switzerland is missing one of its central educational targets. Stefan Wolter, an education researcher, argues that the balance between vocational and academic pathways is tilting the wrong way—and that artificial intelligence will not rescue it.
Just over 90% of 25-year-olds have completed upper-secondary education, short of the 95% target set in 2011. The share has edged down since the previous survey. The causes are hard to pin down: decisions taken in primary school take years to show up in such data. But the consequences are clear. Those without a vocational qualification or academic diplomas are more likely to be unemployed, to rely on welfare and to retire on lower pensions. The long-term costs, both private and public, are substantial.
Switzerland has fared better than many peers, but the trend is still worrying. Performance varies by canton. Those with strong vocational systems do best. Academic routes—university essentially—should account for about 20% of students, yet the national average exceeds 30%. Policymakers, who oversee general education, often end up undermining vocational training rather than promoting it. The result is higher university dropout rates and fewer young people with vocational training.
The country is also slipping in the PISA tests. Scores have declined since 2015. Partly this reflects rising labour-market demands and tougher benchmarks. But performance has also dropped on standardised test questions, mirroring a broader international pattern whose causes remain unclear. Again, Switzerland’s fall is milder than elsewhere, but it remains a concern.
Artificial intelligence will not close the gap. Mr Wolter calls it “sweet poison”: it tempts users to think skills matter less because machines can do thinking for them. In reality, AI amplifies expertise. In unskilled hands it is a blunt tool; in expert ones it is powerful. It does not forgive logic errors or imprecise language. For schools, the implication is straightforward. Teaching must become more rigorous and precise. Subject knowledge will matter more, not less. That raises pressure—but may also motivate pupils, who can achieve more when strong foundations are paired with new tools.
A regional divide
French-speaking cantons lag behind in upper-secondary attainment, largely because vocational training there is less developed. The 95% target remains out of reach: certification rates range from 85% to 92%, compared with 92% to 96% in German-speaking regions.
Cultural preferences help explain the gap. Francophone students are more likely to choose academic routes. In Geneva, for instance, nearly one in three pupils earns a gymnasium diploma, equivalent to university entrance, compared with fewer than one in five in most German-speaking cantons. Yet regions that favour academic tracks tend to have lower tertiary education completion rates overall. Many university courses in Switzerland fail large percentages of students in their first year. A lower academic bar at school will often lead to a higher failure rate a university.
The link between vocational training and attainment is direct, says Christophe Darbellay, head of the cantonal education directors’ conference, speaking to RTS. In bilingual Valais, outcomes vary sharply: in French-speaking Monthey, where vocational training is less entrenched, only 82% complete upper-secondary education; in German-speaking Visp, where apprenticeships are common, the figure reaches 98%.
Nationally, attainment has slipped from 91.5% in 2016 to 90.1% in 2022. Policymakers acknowledge a cultural bias against apprenticeships. Guy Parmelin, Switzerland’s education minister, argues that parents must be persuaded that vocational routes can be the more promising option.
Businesses, too, need convincing. Many complain that training apprentices has become more demanding after recent reforms, and fewer firms are willing to take them on than 15 years ago. The federal government and cantons aim to reverse the trend by harmonising curricula and improving access to higher education.
The message of the report is blunt. Switzerland’s education system remains strong, but its success rests on a delicate balance. Tilt it too far towards academic pathways, and both completion rates and labour-market outcomes may suffer.
More on this:
Swiss education report (in English)
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