In 2025, the prevalence of contraband and foreign cigarette consumption in Belgium increased markedly, accounting for 44.4% of all cigarettes smoked during the fourth quarter – a substantial rise from 34.9% in the corresponding period of the previous year. These findings are derived from a study conducted by Cimabel, the trade association for cigarette manufacturers in Belgium and Luxembourg
Approximately 44.4% of cigarettes consumed in Belgium are not subject to domestic taxation because they are either imported from abroad or counterfeit. This phenomenon results in an estimated loss of over 3.025 billion euros in excise and VAT revenues from tobacco products.
These are the latest results of a study conducted on behalf of Cimabel, the sectoral federation of Belgian-Luxembourg cigarette manufacturers. The latest figures published earlier this month cover the fourth quarter of 2025.
These new figures confirm the sharp increase in illegal tobacco consumption over the last few years. This increase is extremely rapid: in the fourth quarter of 2024, 34.9% of cigarette consumption in Belgium was illegal.
Cimabel warned that counterfeit products are made under unregulated conditions and often contain harmful or unknown ingredients. The study revealed that most untaxed cigarettes originate from countries with lower tobacco prices, such as Bulgaria (53.1%), Luxembourg (15.8%), and Turkey (8.7%).
Luxembourg, where a pack of cigarettes costs approximately 45% less than in the neighbouring countries, is very attractive for tobacco tourism. In 2024, around 4.9 billion cigarettes were sold in Luxembourg, according to the country’s Customs and Excise Administration. These sales brought in €1.2 billion for the state over the year -a considerable sum, given that the total state revenue amounted to €25.2 billion in 2024. While tobacco sales have declined in France, Belgium and the Netherlands since 2019, legal sales in Luxembourg jumped 53% over the same period.
In Belgium, the situation is particularly pronounced in cities across the country, where over 40% of smokers purchase cigarettes outside legal sales channels in several municipalities. According to Cimabel, the results of the study confirm that the high excise policy stimulates the consumption of cigarettes purchased abroad and counterfeit tobacco and nicotine products. Driven by the federal Minister of Public Health, Frank Vandenbroucke, the average price of cigarettes in the market rose from €6.39 in 2020 to €10.57 in 2025, an increase of 65.4%.
Despite the sharp rise in illicit trade, the Belgian government maintains a sterile policy, guiding consumers toward illegal and unhealthy products. At the same time, it stimulates international criminal organisations that use the country as a production, logistics and distribution centre of illegal tobacco products.
Christine De Baets, president of Cimabel, attributed the trend to excessive price hikes and restrictions on alternative nicotine products. “This approach drives Belgian consumers towards contraband and counterfeit networks, harming both public finances and public health. A policy overhaul is urgently needed,” she said.
Cimabel has proposed reforms to excise policies to reduce price disparities within the EU, increased investment in customs services, and greater accessibility to less harmful nicotine alternatives.
Black market tobacco products are a European problem
France currently has the largest illegal tobacco market in Europe, and the situation is significantly more problematic than in the Netherlands or in Belgium. The country combines very high cigarette prices, strong anti-tobacco policies, and large demand, which together have fuelled a huge parallel market.
In 2024 about 18.7 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in France. That represents about 37.6% of all cigarettes smoked in the country. This makes France the largest illicit tobacco market in Europe by a large margin. In other words, more than one in three cigarettes in France is illegal.
The black market is so large in France because of very high cigarette prices. A pack often costs €11–€13 or more. High taxes were introduced deliberately to reduce smoking, but they also create strong incentives for illegal supply. The illegal tobacco and nicotine products trade in France is largely controlled by organized criminal groups. These networks smuggle cigarettes through ports and highways. They produce counterfeit cigarettes in hidden factories and use social media and messaging apps to sell directly to consumers. Some of these groups also combine tobacco trafficking with drug trafficking, money laundering and counterfeit goods trade.
According to Le Figaro of 23 January 2026, seven factories illegally producing cigarettes have been dismantled since 2021 in France. In small night shops, in the metro, or simply on the street, in cities as well as in the countryside, and increasingly online, counterfeit cigarettes are gaining ground. The Union of Manufacturers for the Protection of Intellectual Property (Unifab) even launched a campaign aimed at raising awareness among young people about these products, which are even worse for their health than the cigarettes legally sold at tobacconists.
The Netherlands face also a major increase in black-market e-cigarettes and illicit tobacco, largely linked to very strict regulations and high tobacco taxes. The situation is widely discussed by public-health officials, enforcement agencies, and the tobacco industry.
The country has introduced some of the toughest anti-tobacco policies in Europe, including: a ban on flavoured e-liquids, except tobacco flavour, since 2024 ; complete ban on online sales of vapes ; sales restrictions (only specialist tobacco shops) and very high tobacco taxes. These measures aim to reduce youth smoking and vaping, but they have also created a large gap between demand and legal supply.
Authorities report that illegal flavoured disposable vapes are widely available, often imported from Asia. The Dutch police services seized tens of thousands of illegal vape devices in 2024–2025. The Netherlands is also experiencing a significant rise in illegal cigarettes and tobacco. Around 17.9% of cigarette consumption in the Netherlands is estimated to be illicit, roughly double the previous year, according to a 2024 European study. This includes smuggled cigarettes and counterfeit brands.
The surge has made the Netherlands one of the fastest-growing illicit tobacco markets in Europe.
According to the Financieel Dagblad of 15 November 2025, illegal tobacco and counterfeit cigarettes are increasingly harming Dutch tobacco sellers. After supermarkets were banned from selling tobacco, speciality shops were expected to gain customers, but many smokers are turning to cheaper alternatives abroad or the black market because of high taxes in the Netherlands. The rising availability of fake and untaxed cigarettes makes it harder for legal sellers to compete, leading to lost revenue. Lawmakers have raised questions about whether current policies unintentionally fuel the illicit market, and government surveys show that illegal tobacco is indeed on the rise.
Loss of taxes and a huge deficit
A container of counterfeit cigarettes may be purchased for approximately €300,000 and subsequently sold for around €5 million, representing a markup exceeding tenfold. According to a former diplomat with expertise in this area, such margins enable organized crime groups to capture a significant portion of the tax gap. Illicit tobacco constitutes a multi-billion-euro criminal market in Belgium, France, and the Netherlands.
“Criminal organisations derive substantial profits from illicit tobacco, although these profits remain lower than those generated by drug trafficking. Governments, despite imperfect enforcement, tolerate this risk insofar as the pursuit of public health objectives is deemed to outweigh the associated disadvantages,” the same source said.
Nevertheless, it is incomprehensible that EU countries lose billions of taxes annually in the middle of one of the worst energy crises in 50 years, especially in Belgium, which struggles with a huge deficit. The country’s deficit has reached 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2025, while public debt stands at 104.7 per cent of GDP. The European Commission warned that, in case of unchanged policy, Belgium’s deficit could reach 5.9 per cent by 2027, with only Poland performing worse in the EU.
