Elections, corruption, sex scandals, fragile government coalitions and perhaps an early end to Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist government? Spanish politics promises to have it all in 2026.
What does 2026 have in store for Spanish politics? If it’s anything like 2025, it’ll continue at a frantic pace and swing between the very serious and at times like a culebrón (soap opera).
We can expect scandals, a series of regional elections, criminal trials and lots of alleged lawfare. The Pedro Sánchez government will suffer on with a fragile coalition under strain, propped up by regional nationalist parties, and, of course, propelled by international events out of its control.
Some suggest we might even see the end of Sánchez in 2026.
Coalitions and Congress deals
If you read the right-leaning Spanish press, or prestigious broadsheet correspondents from places like The Times or Financial Times, you’d think the Spanish Congress is completely blocked and the Sánchez government is incapable of passing any laws.
While it’s true that its majority in the House of Deputies has all but disappeared (which turns votes into further rounds of politically and time sensitive negotiations) and that its coalition with far-left Sumar is under serious strain, the Spanish Congress nonetheless passed several laws in recent months including reducing the working week to 37.5 hours, limiting interest rates on short-term loans, an arms embargo on Israel, and a Sustainable Mobility Law.
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It’s true, however, to say that the government has found it difficult to pass substantial legislation since Catalan separatist party Junts per Catalunya essentially ripped up its Congressional arrangement. Sánchez is already wooing leftish Catalan separatists Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya to start the year in a bid to secure a working majority in the House of Deputies, and might we finally see the return of fugitive Catalan President Carles Puigdemont in 2026?
Another big test in 2026 will be whether the government can pass a budget: in both 2024 and 2025 Spain has rolled over the 2023 budget, something it surely cannot politically afford to do again this year.
Internally, the government coalition is strained. Sumar leader Yolanda Díaz has publicly called for a “profound change” following several sexual assault and corruption cases engulfing the government. If these continue in 2026, the cumulative weight of them could affect the very stability of the government.
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Regional elections
Last year finished with regional elections in the western region of Extremadura, and 2026 has several further regional polls on the slate. As is often the case in Spain, politics at the regional level has a knock-on effect and is viewed through the lens of national politics.
In 2026, regional polls could gain headlines for two main reasons: whether or not the centre-right People’s Party will form formal coalitions with the far-right Vox; and whether successive big losses for Sánchez’s Socialists (PSOE) could heap further pressure on his position and signal ‘the end’ of Sanchismo.
READ MORE: ‘Sanchismo’ – PM’s personality cult or Spain’s progressive reformism?
Regional President Jorge Azcón has brought forward elections in Aragón, which were due to be held in 2027, which will be held on February 8th.
Castile and León will hold elections in 2026. However, they have not yet been called, so no date has been set but they are expected to be held around June because the 2022 elections were held on 14th June.
June will see regional elections in Andalusia, a former PSOE stronghold that was won by the Spanish right back in 2022. Regional head Juanma Moreno is a player at the national level — when not getting himself caught up in blackface scandals — and a possible future PP leader, though he has suffered due to the ongoing breast cancer screening fiasco in the southern region.
Spain’s Finance Minister María Jesús Montero, herself a Andalusian, has been dispatched from Madrid to take on Moreno and the results will inevitably be interpreted in terms of national politics. The election must be held by the end of June.
2026 regional elections in Spain:
- 8th February – Aragón
- 15th March – Castile and León
- June – Andalusia
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Lawfare and court cases
The series of ongoing criminal investigations and corruption scandals in Spanish politics looks set to continue in 2026. The trial investigating disgraced former regional President Carlos Mazón government’s handling of the Valencia flood will carry on, as will the various probes into the so-called Caso Koldo engulfing former PSOE government ministers.
Similarly, the investigation into Pedro Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, and his brother, David Sánchez, will continue and the partner of PP Madrid President Isabel Díaz Ayuso, Alberto González Amador, will also rumble on.
READ ALSO: What has ‘lawfare’ got to do with Spain and why is it controversial?
The long-standing Operación Kitchen investigation into corruption in the former PP government will come to a head in April when the trial begins.
In each, we’ll likely see the continued conflation of politics and the legal system, with the Spanish left and right mudslinging over accusations of lawfare.
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More anti-immigration talk and shift to the right?
In Spain and across Europe, 2026 will likely see the continuation of anti-immigration politics and far-right Vox’s rise in the polls.
Now firmly established as Spain’s third party, Vox has moved debate rightward on immigration and forced the PP to take more extreme positions while escalating rhetoric.
The Sánchez government, for its part, is one of the only in Europe willing to make a pro-immigration argument. However, the polls suggest this isn’t in line with the average Spanish voter: immigration regularly ranks as a top priority among Spaniards, and what was most striking figure from the Extremadura elections was the 60.08 percent obtained by the combined PP and Vox vote — a clear right-wing majority.
Despite the fact that migrant arrivals to Spain fell by over 40 percent in 2025, this year will almost certainly see anti-migrant rhetoric ramp up further.
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International events
Of course, if the 2020s have taught us anything, it’s that political predictions are essentially useless and unforeseen wars, pandemics, tariffs or economic crises can knock any government off course.
In the words of former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan, if anything will shape politics in 2026, it’ll be “events, dear boy, events”.
Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, especially Spain’s world-leading pro-Palestinian position, and American meddling in Latin America (one tip for 2026: the role of Venezuela in Spanish politics) will mean that any domestic political agenda might be forced to change to whims of US President Donald Trump.
That said, Sánchez has played an increasingly visible role on the international scene in recent years, notably over Gaza and standing up to the US over defence spending demands. As one of Europe’s few centre-left leaders left, look for the Spanish PM to continue to be a voice on the global stage and, cynics would say, focus on international affairs when the domestic scene becomes particularly difficult.
Early general elections?
Sánchez himself has a well-earned reputation as a political survivor. But could 2026 be the year we finally see the end of Sanchismo?
Some would say he’s too stubborn and politically savvy, but if some or any of the issues listed above flare up at once, or there are further PSOE scandals that link to Sánchez himself, the sheer weight of political pressure might force his hand and we could see a snap general election in Spain in 2026, a year ahead of schedule.
