ISMA, the industry body of private sugar mills, released its second advance estimate of sugar on Friday which has acknowledged a drop in net production to 27.27 million tonnes (mt) during 2024-25 sugar season (October-September) from 31.96 mt in the previous sugar season.
Though in its first estimate ISMA predicted gross production of 33.3 mt for the current season, it implied a net sugar output of around 29.55 mt after factoring 3.75 mt likely diversion towards ethanol. In the 2023-24 season, the net sugar production was 31.96 mt, it said. The All India Sugar Trade Association on January 28 had released its sugar production estimate, with a forecast of 26.52 mt.
Early flowering
“It was noted that sugarcane yield and sugar recovery in Uttar Pradesh is lower than last year primarily due to widespread red rot infestation and varietal replacement resulting in lower estimated sugar production,” the Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) said in a statement on Friday.
Similarly, two other major States of Maharashtra and Karnataka are getting lower cane yields per unit area and the main reason is the onset of early flowering in several cane growing regions due to wet field conditions, it said. There was higher rainfall received during both monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, suppressing sun shine hours, it said.
In December 2024, businessline about the likely decline in sugar output when the millers were not ready to disclose the drop amid their consistent demand to open up export. Recently, the government permitted 1 mt of sugar exports.
The Executive Committee of ISMA, in its meeting on Friday, deliberated on the feedback received from different sources including satellite images of the cane area (during the third week of January), field visits, historical trends, weather, current trend of yields and sugar recoveries achieved till now, as also expected yield/sugar recovery in the remaining period of the sugar season. The satellite pictures have provided a good idea of the area already harvested and the remaining area (unharvested) in the fields across the country to estimate the likely production.
6.25 mt closing stocks
Though many of the industry officials have estimated the likely diversion of sugar (sucrose) towards ethanol at 4 mt for the current season, ISMA has pegged it at 3.75 mt. “Total sugar diversion figures have been adjusted based on the State wise ethanol supply allocations and expected crushing,” it said.
Accordingly, ISMA’s projected sugar balance sheet said there may be gross sugar production of around 31.02 mt, domestic consumption 28 mt, exports 1 mt and closing stock (as on September 30, 2025) 6.25 mt.
Meanwhile, updating the latest production number, ISMA said that already 16.5 mt of sugar has been produced till January 31, as against 18.72 mt in the corresponding period last season.
