According to data and analytics provider Kpler, India’s crude imports from the US have risen to their highest since 2022, reaching 5,40,000 b/d as of October 27
| Photo Credit:
iStockphoto
India’s crude oil imports from the US are on an upward trajectory, with cargoes likely to hit around 5,75,000 barrels per day (b/d) in October 2025, as Washington ups the pressure on New Delhi.
According to the global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, India’s crude imports from the US have risen to their highest since 2022, reaching 5,40,000 b/d as of October 27, with the month likely to close at around 5,75,000 b/d and November around 4,00,000 b/d, per US export data. This is a sharp jump from the year-to-date average of around 3,00,000 b/d.
The increase was economics-driven, supported by a strong arbitrage window, a wider Brent–WTI spread, and no Chinese demand, which made WTI Midland competitive on a delivered basis. Indian refiners capitalised on the opportunity, aided by moderate Q4 turnarounds at home and higher US maintenance, Kpler added.
Focus areas
The rising US share in India’s crude basket carries both strategic value and diversification strategies. Higher energy imports from Washington will help narrow India’s trade deficit with the latter and fit into New Delhi’s broader strategy of diversifying energy supply chains. The increase in crude trade also reinforces energy cooperation between India and the US.
Besides, it also shows India’s diversification strategy where it balances light sweet crude oil cargoes from the US as well as Africa (Nigeria, etc).
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, said that a further upside appears limited, as India’s ability to expand US crude intake is structurally constrained. WTI Midland, a light (API 40–42), naphtha-rich crude, yields fewer middle distillates than the medium and heavy sours Indian refineries are optimised for.
“Higher WTI runs would only add to India’s naphtha surplus, with secondary processing units already near capacity. Additionally, longer voyage times (45–55 days) and higher freight costs compared with West Asian and African grades curb competitiveness. In short, while US barrels offer flexibility, structural and economic factors cap further growth,” he told businessline.
However, sustained growth faces natural limits. Without a deeper Brent–WTI spread or a shift in India’s import strategy, US crude inflows are expected to stabilise at around 4,00,000-500,000 b/d in the coming months.
The pace of imports will also depend on how India recalibrates its sourcing strategy amid evolving trade dynamics — including recent US tariffs on Indian exports and sanctions on key Russian suppliers (Rosneft and Lukoil), which are prompting refiners to balance compliance, costs, and diversification more carefully.
Published on October 27, 2025
