The hard-right ‘No to 10 million people’ initiative would, if approved in an upcoming referendum, have a major impact on Switzerland’s economy and the country as a whole, an expert tells The Local.
The controversial proposal, spearheaded by the hard-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP), seeks to drastically reduce the influx of foreigners to Switzerland, so that the country’s population doesn’t exceed the symbolic 10-million mark before the year 2050.
If it does pass 10 million, then key infrastructure, such as housing, public transport, the health system, and schools will be overburdened, the populist SVP party argues.
READ ALSO: What exactly does the Swiss ‘no to 10 million’ anti immigration proposal aim to do?
In comments to The Local, representatives from SVP, said that “uncontrolled and excessive immigration is the primary cause of the most pressing and significant problems facing Switzerland” and that “immigration must be managed according to the interests of the entire economy.”
But on the opposing side are all the other political parties, the government, as well as economic and business circles, which are sounding the alarm about the consequences of limited immigration on the country’s economy and workforce.
READ ALSO: Does Switzerland need to curb or encourage immigration?
Patrick Leisbach, migration and labour market expert at Avenir Suisse think tank, told The Local that if the initiative is accepted by the Swiss people in a referendum set to place in 2026, then the impact would be felt immediately.
“Though the initiative’s target year is 2050, its effects would be felt immediately, as it would create significant uncertainty – especially for the economy,” Leisbach said.
Foremost among these uncertainties is how exactly migration would be managed.
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According to Leisbach, the initiative offers no clear answer to this question. The SVP have floated ideas such as a quota system, as is currently applied to non-EU /EFTA countries, or a points-based system, which determines an immigrant’s eligibility based on various criteria.
“Such a system would shift migration control from the labour market to administrative offices,” he said. “That would be inefficient and bureaucratic. In the end, the sectors with the strongest political voice would receive the available workers – not necessarily those that contribute most to productivity and prosperity.”
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‘Skill-based’ migration
Calls for a ‘needs-based or ‘high-skilled’ immigration sound reasonable, Leisbach said, but in practice it is, to some extent, already the case today.
That’s because “almost everyone who moves to Switzerland under the free-movement of persons agreement or the quota system for third-country nationals has an employment contract – meaning that they are already responding to genuine labour-market demand.”
The downside of high immigration
Leisbach does believe that some of the arguments put forth by the SVP have some merit.
“Migration does not only have bright sides, such as its positive impact on the economy. Rapid population growth also has costs,” he says.
For instance, the pressure on land, housing, and infrastructure is borne by society as a whole.
“Ultimately, it becomes a question of costs and benefits,” he noted. “If population growth remains persistently very high, the ‘growing pains’ increase, and the overall balance becomes less favourable.”
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The takeaway…
The “no to 10 million” initiative “would likely weaken Switzerland’s long-term growth, innovation, and prosperity,” Leisbach said.
“A flexible and market-oriented migration system has served the country well. In contrast, rigid population limits and bureaucratic control would stifle economic dynamism and gradually erode one of Switzerland’s key competitive advantages.”
On the other hand, “concerns about rapid population growth and the effects of immigration should be taken seriously.”
“Land is becoming scarcer, infrastructure is under strain, and housing is increasingly expensive.”Leisbach said.
In his view, however, “the answer cannot be a hard population cap. Instead, a more sensible, market-based approach would be a better option.”
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What happens next?
The vote will most likely take place in 2026, though no exact date has been set.
Until then, the SVP will campaign to persuade the voters to approve the initiative, while the opponents will argue that the proposal will be detrimental to Switzerland’s future.
In the end, as has always been the case under Switzerland’s unique system of direct democracy – the citizens will decide the referendum’s outcome.
At this point, it is too early to say what the result will be, though one nationwide poll carried out in September 2025, indicates that, far from being rejected outright, the proposal could be accepted – even if by a very narrow majority of voters.
READ ALSO: Will Swiss voters back the anti-immigration proposal?
