But it has conducted a “straw poll” of voters at every election since 1980 to express a preference, and will send its result to Congress all the same. In most cases (Trump’s win in 2016 being one exception) the result from Guam has aligned with the eventual national winner. Since the territory is 15 hours ahead of the U.S. mainland, its straw poll will be scrutinized as an early indicator of the final outcome.
Results are then declared for individual counties within the states as they are counted in the hours that follow the close of polls. Key bellwether precincts and counties to watch out for include Door County in Wisconsin and Northampton County in Pennsylvania, both of which have a record of backing the eventual victor.
TV networks and the Associated Press play a significant role and compete to declare the winners, “calling” states as having voted for one or other candidate when they believe they have enough results from the electoral precincts. Then when they are confident, the media networks will eventually call the overall winner, too. With a huge reputational risk involved if they get it wrong — and if the contest is as close as polls predict — it could be a while before anyone is brave enough to call it.
What are the issues defining the campaign?
Harris has made championing abortion rights the core of her campaign. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade in 2022, states have been putting forward their own measures to restore women’s rights to choose, a policy that is nationally popular. She has attacked Trump’s character, describing him as a fascist and arguing that the future of democracy is on the line.
For his part, Trump has emphasized the economy, pledging tax cuts and slamming Biden’s record overseeing a period of high inflation. A crackdown on immigration remains an explosive and central part of his policy offer, and he frequently courts controversy to get his point across.
Could the polls be wrong?
Of course. Polling is a media obsession and generates enormous amounts of coverage, dominating the contest and shaping the entire debate. But the record of pollsters in recent U.S. presidential elections is a poor one.
