The armed conflict in Iran and the Middle East impacts not only the region’s population but also, in many ways, countries outside the immediate area of conflict – including Switzerland.
In today’s inter-connected world, conflicts that occur far from one’s place of residence can nevertheless have more or less significant repercussions on a global scale.
Switzerland too is caught in the crossfire of the conflict currently underway in the Middle East – though thankfully not in a literal sense.
These are some of the ways Switzerland is already affected by US and Israeli air strikes on Iran and Tehran’s response – plus the consequences it is likely to suffer in the near future.
Petrol prices
The prices of petrol in Switzerland have been relatively stable since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. But now they are climbing again.
According to Roland Bilang, director of Avenergy, the umbrella organisation for oil market professionals, prices at Swiss pumps will continue to rise in coming days and weeks, reaching, and possibly even exceeding, 2 francs per litre – up from about 1.70 per litre on average currently for unleaded 95.
READ MORE: Where can you buy cheapest petrol in Switzerland right now?
Economy
If the conflict in the Middle East escalates further and the oil price continues to rise, the Swiss economy could be impacted.
According to the research institute BAK Economics, growth will then fall by around a third below forecast levels.
“Significant oil price shocks would noticeably slow the Swiss economy, but are not expected to derail it,” said BAK chief economist Claude Maurer.
Travel
After the war started on February 28th, thousands of Swiss tourists became stranded in the Middle East, unable to return home because airlines stopped operating.
The situation has not yet returned to normal.
While some Gulf airlines have partially resumed their flights to Zurich, SWISS has suspended operations to Tel-Aviv until and including at least April 2nd, and to Tehran until and including April 20th.
Depending on the situation, however, the suspension of these and other flights to the region could be extended.
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Terrorism
The Federal Intelligence Service (FIS) considers it ‘likely’ that Iran will take retaliatory actions by targeting Israeli, Jewish, and American targets in various countries, including Switzerland.
“We believe it is likely that Iranian services, their allies or criminal networks mandated by Iran will be carrying out actions in Europe and Switzerland,” FIS spokesperson Christoph Gnägi told Swiss media.
The danger, he said, comes not only from Iran itself, but also also from sympathising groups like the Lebanese Hezbollah “which is particularly active in Switzerland.”
Technology, communications, and artificial intelligence
“Beyond the soaring gas and oil prices, the conflict is also destabilising entire sectors of the economy, such as tourism, finance, and artificial intelligence,” economist Stéphane Garelli told RTS public broadcaster.
That’s because “the Iranians have begun bombing data centres in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. If you start targeting data centres, you are targeting technology, communications, and artificial intelligence. All of that is at risk of being destroyed.”
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But not all outlooks are gloomy
Through all the global upheavals in recent decades, Switzerland has shown an enviable resilience to various shocks.
In recent years, for instance, its economy has recovered quicker and better than other nations’ from the Covid pandemic.
Researchers found that this resilience “reflects Switzerland’s comprehensive economic strength against crises.”
It is no different this time around as well.
In a recent interview with Swiss media, Jan-Egbert Sturm, head of the KOF Economic Institute, noted that “our industry is relatively energy-efficient and heavily focused on niche products. While energy-intensive sectors are certainly directly affected by rising oil prices, this channel is not the most decisive for the Swiss economy as a whole.”
READ MORE: How is Switzerland ‘involved’ in the US – Iran conflict?
