FLENSBURG, Germany — Friedrich Merz is Germany’s likely next chancellor, but how he will form a coalition government is looking increasingly uncertain.
At a campaign event on Friday in the northern German city of Flensburg, Greens chancellor candidate Robert Habeck cast doubt on the possibility of a coalition between his party and Merz’s conservative alliance following the Feb. 23 election.
It has become “more complicated” to work with Merz after his conservatives weakened Germany’s firewall against the far right last week by accepting the Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) support in parliament to push through anti-immigration measures, Habeck said. “If this happens again,” he continued, “it will be difficult to find common ground on this basis.”
Merz’s gambit last week to accept far-right support in parliament triggered a political firestorm in Berlin, with center-left leaders in the Greens and Social Democratic Party (SPD) taking particular umbrage. Habeck, who also serves as economy minister, at the time said Merz’s tactics amounted to a “disqualification” from the chancellorship.
Merz defended the decision, arguing that his party should pass its policies regardless of who supports them.
But the outrage raises the question of which party Merz’s conservatives will form a coalition with after the election. Merz has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, leaving the SPD and the Greens as his main remaining options.
GERMANY NATIONAL PARLIAMENT POLL OF POLLS
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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
But the conservative willingness to align with the far right may well complicate coalition negotiations. Asked in Flensburg whether the Greens would refuse to enter government with the conservatives if Merz again relied on AfD votes, Habeck replied: “Yes, exactly.”
That stance could spell trouble for Merz, as, in certain post-election scenarios, he may need the Greens. Current polling puts his center-right alliance at around 30 percent — ahead of SPD, the Greens, and the AfD — but far from a majority.
At the same time, leaders of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party to Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), have said they will not rule in coalition with the Greens.
That still leaves the SPD. But, in a near worst-case scenario for Merz, his conservatives could conceivably be forced to govern in a minority government, relying on shifting majorities in parliament to pass legislation — a rare scenario in German politics.
