The platform claims that “prediction markets are often more accurate than pundits because they combine news, polls, and expert opinions into a single value that represents the market’s view of an event’s odds.”
Polymarket is not authorized to operate in France and had been under French regulators’ “radars” since before the U.S. election, said an official familiar with the probe, who was granted anonymity to discuss the ongoing proceedings.
The Big Whale, a cryptocurrency news publication, reported Wednesday that the authority was getting ready to ban Polymarket in France. Polymarket declined to respond to POLITICO’s request for comment.
While most presidential forecasts had the race between Trump and Kamala Harris as a toss-up, bets on Polymarket showed Trump favored to win, which the now-president elect boasted about on his Truth Social account two weeks before the election. However, in the weeks leading up to the vote, Polymarket consistently showed Harris winning the popular vote, which is now on track to go to Trump as well.
The platform drew attention in France last month after The New York Times reported that one French user had bet $28 million on a Trump win using four different accounts — and thus shortening Trump’s odds of winning on the platform.
Polymarket said in a statement last month that it had investigated the trading activity and not found any information that the user behind it “manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market.”
