Bayrou’s minority government, which is expected to employ 49.3 four times to get its budget passed, is supported by a loose coalition of centrist and conservative politicians. To survive all those no-confidence votes, it needs some part of the opposition to abstain from voting to censure the government.
“Bayrou is a shopkeeper whose aim has always been to maximize the position of his own [centrist] party,” said a former government adviser, who was granted anonymity to protect relationships. “His aim here is to survive, or at least survive longer than Barnier.”
But Bayrou’s future may be determined by the shifting political winds in France rather than by anything he has done. After Barnier’s downfall in December, public opinion in favor of toppling the government has ebbed, recent polls show.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party is set to make its decision on whether to grant Bayrou a stay of execution at the last minute. On Tuesday, the party’s president, Jordan Bardella, said he believed it was important “to avoid uncertainty” that might have “serious consequences for the economy.”
All eyes on are on Socialist lawmakers, as Bayrou had targeted the Socialists as a potential partner in the opposition. Though the party has voiced its opposition to Bayrou’s proposed €53 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts, it has vowed not to bring him down over the budget.
The price the prime minister paid was steep: Bayrou agreed to reopen talks on Macron’s flagship pensions reform, albeit in a limited manner, and rowed back some spending cuts.
