With their initiative, the Young Social Democrats have succeeded in creating a debate around the issue of taxation of large inheritances, but not in winning over the electorate.
Keystone / Philipp Schmidli
A majority of Swiss voters both at home and abroad look set to reject the civic duty and inheritance tax initiatives on November 30, according to a new survey.
The youth wing of the left-wing Social Democratic Party could suffer a crushing defeat in the national vote on November 30 that proposes to tax the super-rich in Switzerland on their inheritance and use the money to tackle the climate crisis.
According to a second poll conducted by the gfs.bern research institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC), Swissinfo’s parent company, the inheritance tax initiative, which was already struggling in a first poll, has lost further ground.
With just over ten days to go before the decisive vote, 68% of the electorate is against the text. The “no” camp has thus gained six percentage points in the space of a month. Those who support the initiative now represent just 30% of the electorate. The remaining 2% are still undecided.
The proposal does not appeal to the Swiss Abroad, either, even though they tend to vote more in favour of measures to protect the environment than the Swiss back home. In all, 64% of the Swiss Abroad are against the plan, 33% support it and 3% are undecided.
The initiative text calls for a 50% tax to be levied whenever someone bequeaths or gifts more than CHF50 million ($63 million) to their descendants. The tax would be payable on the amount exceeding this CHF50 million. The funds generated would be used to combat climate change.
However, the poll shows that this idea does not convince anyone outside the ranks of the left-wing Social Democrats and Green Party. More than two-thirds of the electorate fear that people inheriting a business will not have enough cash to pay the tax and will be forced to sell it. This is the argument that carries the most weight.
For the second survey in the run-up to the federal votes on November 30, 2025, gfs.bern polled 12,939 voters between 5 and 13 November. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.
A similar proportion doubt the effectiveness of such a tax, believing that the wealthy could easily circumvent it by leaving Switzerland.
But a majority of those questioned continue to believe that the ultra-rich should contribute more to climate protection, since they are responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions.
“Opposition to the initiative was formed early on and has become even stronger over the space of a month,” said gfs.bern political scientist Martina Mousson. In her view, the campaign has shifted the focus from the problem raised by the initiative to the difficulties that the proposed solution would pose. “All the indicators point to a popular rejection of the initiative,” said the political scientist.
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Civic duty initiative unlikely to succeed
The other issue being decided on November 30, the initiative for compulsory civic duty for all, has not been much more successful.
Support for the proposal, which calls to replace compulsory military service with civic duty for the benefit of the community and the environment, which would be extended to women, collapsed during the vote campaign. The idea was put forward by a Geneva-based association.
According to the gfs.bern poll, 64% of those questioned are opposed to the initiative, 18 percentage points more than a month ago. Only 32% are still in favour, and 4% have not yet formed an opinion. The proportions are similar among the Swiss Abroad. In all, 62% say they are against the plan, 34% support it and 4% are undecided.
At the start of the campaign, the initiative was overwhelmingly supported by left-wing voters. However, this is no longer the case. Now, only people close to the centrist Liberal Green party are still attracted by the proposal.
The rise of the “no” camp is reflected in the arguments put forward. In all, 70% of those surveyed feared that compulsory service for all would result in considerable additional costs for the cantons. This argument has gained in importance.
At the same time, the arguments put forward by the initiative’s supporters are becoming less and less convincing. However, the basic idea behind the initiative still appeals to a majority of Swiss people: 64% of voters believe that a universal service would strengthen solidarity and a sense of responsibility.
Since initiatives tend to lose support as the campaign progresses, voters could well bury the proposal on November 30.
>> Should Switzerland replace compulsory military service with civic duty for the benefit of the community and the environment, which would be extended to women? Check out our video below.
Edited by Pauline Turuban; adapted from French by DeepL/Simon Bradley/ds
