Central Asian economies show diverging growth trends in 2025, international forecasts show

BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 29. Central Asia is
set for robust economic growth in 2025, but the pace and drivers
differ significantly across countries.

Data obtained and analyzed by Trend from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and Asian
Development Bank (ADB) indicates differences in projected growth
across the region, with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan showing higher
projected rates, Uzbekistan exhibiting moderately strong growth,
and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan forecasted to expand at a more
moderate pace.

Kyrgyzstan stands out as the fastest-growing economy, with
forecasts dancing between 8.0 percent (IMF) and 11.7 percent (ADB),
landing on a sweet spot average of 9.57 percent. Strong domestic
demand, public investment in infrastructure, and rising remittances
underpin this expansion. However, the wide spread in forecasts
signals sensitivity to potential fluctuations in remittance inflows
and the sustainability of investment-driven growth.

Tajikistan maintains solid momentum, supported by diversified
sectors including agriculture, trade, and industry. Forecasts for
2025 cluster more closely (7.5-8.1 percent, average 7.7 percent),
suggesting a relatively stable growth outlook. Analysts highlight
that continued inflows from remittances and infrastructure
investment are key enablers, but relying on outside funds and the
ebb and flow of commodity prices might put the brakes on
growth.

Uzbekistan’s growth is on the upswing, with an average forecast
of 6.9 percent, fueled by a robust appetite for domestic
consumption, a healthy dose of investment, and a solid export
performance that’s hitting the ground running. Compared to
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the spread in forecasts is narrower,
indicating more consensus among institutions and less vulnerability
to short-term shocks.

Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are looking to keep their heads
above water with moderate growth expectations. Kazakhstan’s average
forecast of 5.9 percent reflects solid performance in oil
production and infrastructure, but exposure to commodity price
volatility and reliance on Russian transit infrastructure constrain
upside potential. Turkmenistan shows a similar pattern (average
forecast 5.0 percent), with growth underpinned by public investment
and services, yet a wide forecast spread points to uncertainty in
underlying economic assumptions.

Comparative GDP forecasts for Central Asian countries in
2025 (%):