As the Iranian authorities grapple with the aftermath of the June conflict with Israel and the United States, the return of veteran politician Ali Larijani as secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council marks something of a political comeback but was not unexpected.
After the war ended, the 67-year-old claimed that on the first day of the Israeli attacks, Iran’s security apparatus had contacted him and demanded his resignation. Last year, Larijani was barred from running for president.
But he will now play a central role in shaping policy in the wake of Israeli and US bombing that exposed Iranian military vulnerabilities.
“Larijani was sidelined and disqualified, but he was never fully removed from the political scene,” London-based Iranian political analyst Babak Dorbeigi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.
“Several important developments occurred during the 12-day war. One major issue, as highlighted by officials in the media, was the miscalculation of Iran’s defense capabilities,” he added.
‘Urgent Need For Change’
The Israeli and US strikes hit key military and nuclear targets, embarrassing Tehran as it appeared unable to defend itself effectively. Officials offered varying accounts of the scale of the damage incurred, creating an impression of chaos in the Iranian leadership.
“Yet the most critical issue — one that takes precedence over all others — was the realization that, in a time of war, the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) could not be relied upon,” Dorbeigi said.
“His absence and Iran’s lack of leadership exposed a major vacuum at the top. All of this points to an urgent need for change,” he added.
In this telling, Larijani is a trusted figure capable of “rational decision-making.” Seen as a pragmatist, he will work closely with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian, who chairs the security body and is often regarded as pro-reformist.
But its decisions must still be approved by Khamenei.
“As long as Khamenei remains at the helm of the establishment, no strategic policy changes should be expected — only tactical adjustments,” Paris-based Iranian analyst Reza Alijani told RFE/RL.
“Larijani’s role appears to be one of crisis management, which also includes managing compromise as Khamenei consistently avoids having any compromise attributed directly to him,” he added.
Larijani has held this particular post before, from 2005-2007, later serving as speaker of the Iranian parliament until 2020. In this capacity, he gained international prominence backing the 2015 nuclear agreement with the United States and Britain, France, and Germany (known as the E3).
The first Trump administration walked away from that deal and Washington was in the process of negotiating with Tehran when Israeli air strikes began in June. The talks were abruptly broken off and have not resumed, with Tehran saying it cannot trust Washington and the White House questioning whether there is any merit in further talks given the damage caused to Iran’s nuclear sites.
Following the conflict, Iran continued talks with the E3 and the European Union on July 25.
The E3 nations have warned that if a nuclear deal with Iran is not reached by the end of August, they will reinstate all UN sanctions against Iran by activating a so-called snapback mechanism of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Top Adviser On Nuclear Issues
Prior to his reappointment to the Security Council, Larijani was already Khamenei’s top adviser on nuclear issues.
On July 20, he met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin and “conveyed assessments of the escalating situation in the Middle East and around the Iranian nuclear program,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Months before the conflict with Israel and the United States, Larijani warned on Iranian TV that an attack would make Iran more likely to develop nuclear weapons. But since the attacks, Iranian officials have refrained from mentioning the subject, instead taking the line that Iran would continue uranium enrichment.
It’s a distinction that Western powers don’t accept, since Iran has been enriching uranium to a far higher degree than that needed for a civilian nuclear program.
Larijani’s appointment came two days after Iran announced it was setting up a new Defense Council, under the supervision of the Security Council.
