WTO improves its world trade forecast thanks to Trump
Keystone-SDA
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) expects world trade to grow by 0.9% this year, better than expected in April. US imports surged in the first quarter as a result of Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Imports to the US rose by 11% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, the organisation said in Geneva on Friday. American companies rushed to buy goods from their foreign partners amid uncertainty over the situation following the three-month pause in tariffs decreed by the US President.
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“World trade has shown resilience” in the face of disruption, “including recent tariff increases”, said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. “The full impact of recent tariff measures, however, has yet to be felt,” she added.
In April, in the midst of the trade war between the United States and China, the WTO was predicting a 0.2% contraction in world trade this year. However, the new tariffs are expected to have a corrective effect in the second half of the year.
The truce between Washington and Beijing and certain exceptions are making a positive contribution. But the new tariffs that came into force on Thursday will have a greater impact on imports into the United States. These are expected to fall by 8.3%.
Asia in first place
And the situation now looks particularly difficult for next year, according to WTO economists. Growth is likely to be 1.8%, compared with a previous estimate of 2.5%.
Another explanation for this year is that the global economic situation is more favourable. The depreciation of the dollar should ease conditions for developing countries. And the fall in oil prices should support growth in the industrialised economies, even if it should reduce demand for imports in oil-rich regions.
By region, Asia will continue to drive world trade, with exports up by 4.9% and imports up by 3.3%. European exports are set to fall by 0.9%.
Adapted from French by DeepL/ac
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