The dispute over the disputed border between Thailand and Cambodia, rooted in more than a century of colonial-era map disputes, has already led to deadly fighting.
But it is the growing animosity between former allies and political figures Hun Sen and Thaksin Shinawatra that has aggravated tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, to the point of provoking an open war.
A fierce rivalry between two influential political figures.
Hun Sen, 72, and Thaksin Shinawatra, 76, former leaders of Cambodia and Thailand, once had such a close friendship that they considered each other brothers. Over the years, Hun Sen has supported Thaksin’s family in their long struggle for power against the Thai army.
Thaksin and his sister Yingluck stayed at Hun Sen’s house after they were ousted from power. Subsequently, Hun Sen appointed Thaksin as economic adviser to the Cambodian government. Thaksin visited Cambodia frequently, and Hun Sen was the first foreign guest to meet the former Thai leader after his return to the country, marking the end of more than 15 years of self-imposed exile.
Hun Sen and Thaksin are no longer in power in their respective countries, but their influence remains considerable. Hun Sen ruled Cambodia for nearly 40 years before handing over in 2023 to his eldest son, Hun Manet, who became prime minister after elections widely criticized for their lack of real competition. As for Thaksin, his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, became prime minister last year, continuing her family’s political legacy.
Relations between the two clans have deteriorated considerably in recent months. While the precise causes of the conflict remain unclear, experts agree that the rising tensions have exacerbated instability over a long-standing territorial dispute, intensifying violent clashes on the borders of neighboring nations.
Hun Sen, the “uncle” who targeted the Shinawatra girl
Last month, the extent of their dispute came to light when Hun Sen leaked a recording of a phone conversation with Paetongtarn Shinawatra. During the exchange on the border dispute, Paetongtarn referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and assured him that if she needed anything, she would “take care of it.” Aggravating circumstance: she also made unflattering remarks against a senior Thai military commander.
The release of the recording sparked controversy in Thailand. His opponents accuse him of prioritizing his family ties to the detriment of national interests, accusing him of giving in to Cambodia. Suspended from her duties by the Constitutional Court in July, she is being investigated for ethical violations.
Some analysts believe that Hun Sen may seek to strengthen nationalism within the country in order to shore up support for his son, Hun Manet.
Another interpretation comes from exiled Cambodian opposition leader Sam Rainsy, now based in France. He argues that Hun Sen may be alarmed by Thailand’s crackdown on Chinese-run cyber scam operations along the border — companies that Rainsy says have become “a key source of illicit funding for the current regime in Phnom Penh.”
It is not known why Hun Sen turned against his former allies. He accused Thaksin of treason and threatened to divulge other sensitive information about the Shinawatras. “I never imagined that someone so close could act like this,” Thaksin said afterward, claiming that their friendship was permanently broken.
Hun Sen, regardless of his motivation, has successfully undermined Thaksin’s influence, exploited the discord between his family and the military, and fostered a power vacuum in Thailand.
