Economists have lowered their predictions for economic growth in 2026.
Keystone-SDA
Generated with artificial intelligence.
Experts believe that economic development in Switzerland will be weaker in 2026 than the forecasts made three months ago. They have also lowered their predictions for the current year.
The economists surveyed as part of the KOF Consensus Forecast now expect real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sporting events) to grow by 1.3% on average in 2025 and 2026. The forecast for unadjusted GDP growth is 1.1% for this year and 1.6% for 2026, the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) said on Monday.
The growth prospects for both years are slightly weaker than recent forecasts. In the March survey, the economists still expected growth of 1.4% in 2025 after adjustment for sport and 1.2% unadjusted growth.
More
More
Economists slash Swiss GDP growth forecasts
This content was published on
Following an increase in exports to the United States in the first quarter, the Swiss economy is bracing itself for a tariff backlash.
For 2026, their forecast was +1.6% for sports-adjusted GDP and +1.8% for unadjusted GDP.
The lower growth predictions for 2026 are mainly due to lower estimates for investments. The economists surveyed are still forecasting +1.6% for fixed asset investments in 2026, after estimating +2.0% in March.
And for equipment investment, they still expect +1.6% (+2.1%) for the coming year. By contrast, expectations for construction investment are unchanged (+1.7%).
Lower inflation rate expected
With regard to inflation, respondents expect lower figures than in March. The expected inflation rate for the current year is still 0.2%, down from 0.5% previously, while it has been adjusted to 0.6% for 2026 from 0.8% previously.
More
More
Trump tariff shock: how Switzerland is positioning itself
This content was published on
Swiss companies, politicians and workers are scrambling to work out the true cost of punitive US tariffs.
The outlook for the situation on the German labour market has also deteriorated further. The consensus value for the unemployment rate is now 2.9% for 2025 after 2.8% in the March survey and 3.0% (2.8%) for 2026.
The survey participants were also asked for their growth predictions for the corresponding values in five years’ time. Here, too, the economists have become more pessimistic.
They now estimate adjusted growth of 1.5% (+1.6%) and unadjusted growth of 1.6% (+1.7%). The long-term inflation expectations remain unchanged at +1.0%, while those for the unemployment rate are also unchanged at 2.8%.
A total of 15 economists took part in the KOF Consensus Forecast. The survey was conducted from June 2-18, 2025.
Translated from German with DeepL/sb
We select the most relevant news for an international audience and use automatic translation tools to translate them into English. A journalist then reviews the translation for clarity and accuracy before publication.
Providing you with automatically translated news gives us the time to write more in-depth articles. The news stories we select have been written and carefully fact-checked by an external editorial team from news agencies such as Bloomberg or Keystone.
If you have any questions about how we work, write to us at english@swissinfo.ch.
More
Zurich arbitration authority rules in favour of tenants of ‘Sugus Houses’
This content was published on
A conciliation authority says the terminations of 105 flat leases in the so-called “Sugus Houses” in the centre of Zurich were abusive. The tenants therefore do not have to move out – at least for the time being.
Visitors to Switzerland spent CHF19.6 billion ($23.9 billion) last year, a 2.2% rise compared to the previous year, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) said on Monday.
Despite the current tense economic situation, Swiss consumer sentiment remains positive. The Swiss spent more money in May than the previous year, particularly on restaurant visits and leisure activities, as shown by the latest figures released by PostFinance.
A bear killed four sheep in the Lower Engadine region near Scuol, canton Graubünden, last week. This was the first bear attack on local livestock in four years.
Fewer people in Switzerland have a religious affiliation and the proportion who practice their religion regularly is steadily declining, a survey finds.
Study: trees have major cooling effect even in extreme heat
This content was published on
Plane trees in cities have an important cooling effect even in extreme heat, according to a new study by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL).
EPFL launches digitised version of Battle of Murten panorama
This content was published on
To mark the anniversary of the Battle of Murten on 22 June 1476, the Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL) has launched a website that offers the public an immersive experience of the huge panorama painting of the historic battle.
