As India surpasses Japan to become the fourth-largest economy after the US, China and Germany, a wider discussion on Indians’ wealth has ensued. While most experts say it is the per capita GDP that is the most optimum metric of gauging a country’s growth, there are others who claim otherwise.
Policy and geopolitical strategist, Sidharth, said India is not catching up, it is overtaking. India’s per capita has grown faster than most European countries, he said.
“Every time India’s economy rises, someone parrots: “But per capita GDP is low!” India isn’t Monaco. It’s 1.4 billion people moving forward fast. Per capita grew 9.2% in 2023, faster than most of Europe. You don’t measure a large nation with boutique metrics. You measure it by momentum, scale, and strategic impact. India isn’t catching up, it’s overtaking. Deal with it,” he said.
In a response to another post, he said India is well on track and that its per capita is still growing and not stagnant. “Having a giant population absolutely matters,” he said.
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said if India sticks to what is being planned and thought through, it will just be a matter of 2-3 years before it becomes the third-largest economy.
According to the World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s GDP is $4,187.017 billion ($4 trillion), surpassing Japan’s $4,186.431 billion. By 2028, India is expected to push its GDP to $5,584.476 billion to overtake Germany. China is the second-largest economy at $19,231.705 billion, while the US tops the list with a GDP of $30,507.217 billion.
Experts say this is not only a story of India’s ascent but also of Japan’s decline. In 2010, Japan had an economy of nearly $6 trillion, which has now shrunk to nearly $4.18 trillion, due to an aging population, stagnant productivity and long-running deflation. India, on the other hand, has doubled its nominal GDP in a decade to emerge as the fastest-growing economy.
While the IMF has projected India’s growth for 2025 to be around 6.2-6.5 per cent, India needs to grow in a sustained manner at 8 per cent, similar to China and Japan’s growths in their peak years, to truly unlock its potential. Capital formation should also rise 32 per cent but is at 24 per cent now.
Experts have also pointed out that India’s per capita GDP is equivalent to Japan’s in 1950s. Considering Japan stagnates, India would need 22 years to reach their level of per capita GDP.
India’s per capita GDP in 2025 is around $2,400, which is below countries like Kenya, Morocco, Libya, Mauritius and South Africa.
