DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, May 24. The European Bank
for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted that
Tajikistan’s real GDP growth would reach 7 percent in 2025, with a
slight decline to 5.7 percent in 2026, Trend reports.
Tajikistan’s economy continued its solid growth in 2024,
supported by positive contributions from agriculture, industry, and
services. Investment remains strong, bolstered by the ongoing
construction of the Rogun dam and other major infrastructure
projects. Consumption is also robust, underpinned by sustained
remittance inflows and rapid credit expansion, although from a low
base.
Inflation has remained low and stable compared to regional
peers, at 3.7 percent in February 2025. The country’s current
account surplus widened to 6.1 percent of GDP in 2024, as strong
remittance inflows more than offset the growing trade deficit.
Additionally, Tajikistan’s international reserves were boosted by
the continued monetization of previously acquired gold, now
covering over seven months of imports, according to IMF
estimates.
Tajikistan’s fiscal policy remains aligned with the targets set
under the IMF’s Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) programme,
ensuring financial stability. However, the potential slowdown in
China, which accounted for around 14 percent of Tajikistan’s goods
exports in 2022, along with other key trading partners, could
moderately affect the country’s growth prospects.
The EBRD projects that Tajikistan’s economy will continue to
benefit from ongoing infrastructure investments and remittance
inflows, supporting a strong growth outlook in the coming
years.
