Switzerland’s population is expected to rise from 9 million in 2024 to 10.5 million by 2055, according to baseline projections published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The increase will be driven almost entirely by net migration, as the country’s natural population growth—births minus deaths—is forecast to turn negative from 2035 onward.
Migration will increasingly depend on economic conditions, the FSO notes, underlining Switzerland’s reliance on foreign labour to offset demographic decline in the working population. The agency also outlines two alternative projections: a high-growth scenario reaching 11.7 million, and a low-growth case with 9.3 million inhabitants by 2055.
The projections show a rapidly ageing population, as baby boomers enter retirement and life expectancy continues to rise. The number of residents aged 65 or older is expected to grow by around 50% between 2024 and 2055, while those aged 80 and above are set to nearly double, from 540,000 in 2025 to over 1 million by 2055.
By mid-century, one in four residents will be aged 65 or more—outnumbering children and adolescents, who will make up just 17.9% of the population. The dependency ratio—those aged 65+ relative to working-age adults (20–64)—will rise from 38 per 100 in 2025 to at least 50 per 100 by 2055.
Despite demographic headwinds, Switzerland’s labour force is projected to expand by 12.5%. In addition, the working population is expected to become more educated. By 2045, over 60% of adults aged 25 to 64 are expected to hold a tertiary qualification.
Population growth will remain largely concentrated in the Zurich metropolitan area and the Lake Geneva Arc. The fastest-growing cantons are expected to be Lucerne (+32%), St. Gallen (+25%), Vaud and Geneva (both +22%), Aargau and Thurgau (+20%), and Zurich (+18%).
By contrast, growth in Neuchâtel and Schaffhausen is forecast to be marginal (+0.4%), while Appenzell Ausserrhoden is expected to grow by only 0.9%. The Jura is expected to see a slight population decline (-0.1%). Growth will be 18.5% in Valais, 14.4% in Fribourg, and 2% in Bern.
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