From 2035, population growth will come exclusively from migration and will be increasingly dependent on Switzerland’s economic situation, the Federal Statistical Office said on Tuesday.
Keystone-SDA
The Swiss population is expected to grow to 10.5 million by 2055, mainly due to immigration, according to the latest forecast by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
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From 2035 onwards, natural population growth – the difference between the number of births and deaths – will be negative. Growth will therefore come exclusively from migration and will be increasingly dependent on the country’s economic situation, the FSO said on Tuesday.
The statistical office has calculated two other scenarios: a “high” forecast predicts a population of 11.7 million in 2055, and a “low” prediction of 9.3 million.
Ageing rapidly until 2040
The Swiss population will continue to age, FSO says, with many baby boomers retiring and life expectancy increasing. The population aged 65 or over will increase by around 50% between 2024 and 2055.
It is expected to rise rapidly until around 2040, before levelling off. Annual growth will peak in 2029 at 2.6%. The number of people aged 80 or over will almost double, rising from 0.54 million in 2025 to 1.03 million in 2055. In that year, people aged 65 or over will account for a quarter of the population, more than children and teenagers (17.9%).
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The changing face of Swiss immigration
There were 38 senior citizens for every 100 working people aged 20 to 64 in 2024; this figure will rise to at least 50 by 2055.
But the working population, which includes both employed and unemployed people, will increase by 12.5%, according to FSO. And it will be better educated: in 20 years’ time, more than 60% of 25-64 year-olds will have a post-secondary qualification.
Zurich and the Lake Geneva region
Switzerland’s population will continue to concentrate in the Zurich and Lake Geneva regions, according to FSO. The biggest population growth will be seen in cantons Lucerne (32%), St Gallen (25%), Vaud and Geneva (22%), Aargau and Thurgau (20%). The population of Zurich is expected to grow by 18%.
In contrast, cantons Neuchâtel (0.4%), Schaffhausen (0.4%) and Appenzell Outer Rhodes (0.9%) are expected to grow by less than 1%. Jura, meanwhile, is expected to record a decline of 0.1%.
In the other French-speaking cantons, the increase will be 18.5% in Valais, 14.4% in Fribourg and 2% in Bern.
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Swiss right-wing party hands in initiative to limit immigration
Swiss People’s Party initiative
Meanwhile, the right-wing Swiss People’s Party has launched an initiative entitled “No to 10 million Swiss! (sustainability initiative)” aimed at preventing the population from exceeding this threshold by 2050.
The text calls for strict controls on immigration and for measures to be taken as soon as the population exceeds 9.5 million. If necessary, international treaties that “encourage population growth”, such as the agreement on the free movement of persons with the European Union, should be terminated.
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Swiss government rejects initiative to cap population
The Swiss government opposes their proposal, which it says threatens the country’s prosperity, economy and security. While it is not proposing a counter-proposal, the Federal Council acknowledges that immigration and demographic growth pose challenges.
It therefore proposes to introduce accompanying measures to deal with immigration in the labour market, housing and asylum. Parliament still has to decide on the initiative text, before it goes to a nationwide vote.
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Translated from German by DeepL/sb
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