DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, April 14. The Asian
Development Bank (ADB) has revised its inflation forecast for
Tajikistan to 5 percent in 2025, which is 1.5 percentage points
lower than the previous estimate of 6.5 percent, Trend reports.
Inflation is expected to rise slightly to 5.8 percent in 2026.
According to the ADB, inflation in 2025 and 2026 will be driven by
factors such as strong remittance inflows, increased credit to
households and the private sector, and an anticipated rise in
public worker salaries and pensions.
The increase in utility tariffs and higher food prices,
attributed to climate change and adverse weather conditions, are
also expected to contribute to price hikes. However, inflation is
expected to remain within the National Bank of Tajikistan’s target
range of 3 percent – 7 percent in both 2025 and 2026.
The ADB also noted that while the Tajik somoni is expected to
depreciate gradually against the US dollar, it may continue to
appreciate against the Russian ruble, which could reduce the local
value of remittance inflows despite rising inflation for imported
goods.
In 2024, Tajikistan saw inflation decrease slightly from 3.8
percent in 2023 to 3.6 percent, falling below the National Bank’s
target range. This decline was largely due to smaller price
increases for food, as global commodity prices moderated. Food
price inflation dropped for the second consecutive year, from 3.4
percent in 2023 to 3 percent, driven by lower prices for wheat
flour, sugar, potatoes, and non-alcoholic beverages.
Inflation for other goods also slowed, from 6.6 percent to 4
percent, largely due to smaller increases in fuel prices. However,
inflation for services accelerated from 1.2 percent in 2023 to 4.8
percent, with notable increases in public utilities, personal
services, medical care, and catering. Services contributed to 21.5
percent of total inflation. The Tajik somoni appreciated against
both the US dollar and the Russian ruble, helping to offset some of
the increases in global food and fuel prices.
