800 billion euro over four years to rearm Europe: this is the ambitious plan unveiled by Ursula von der Leyen on 4 March. The European Commission President’s announcement follows the US U-turn on support for Ukraine in the war against Russia, the reopening of US negotiations with Vladimir Putin and the humiliating Trump-Zelensky meeting – in short, the realisation that Europe must now act alone to defend itself.
And where will the money come from? Primarily, from a mechanism enabling member states to temporarily exceed the budgetary limits imposed by the Maastricht criteria for limiting public deficits and controlling debt. The figure is therefore an estimate: 650 billion euro is expected to come from the increase in member states’ defence spending, made possible by this suspension of the European economic framework. The remaining 150 billion euro could come from the EU, via a mechanism offering attractive loans. This proposal echoes measures already taken by member states to increase their defence budgets, which it is intended to amplify.
No magic money, then. Too unambitious, too vague, excessive or even useless: criticism of the plan is already raining down from all sides. But Von der Leyen seems determined to turn the plan into a legislative proposal as soon as possible.
At the national level, however, there is some uncertainty about the ability of nations to finance such major projects. And some are worried that defence will be financed at the expense of everything else.
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