BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 21. Once again, Armenia
shows its true colors — a face painted with deceit, treachery, and
aggression. Yerevan is like a jackal lurking in the shadows,
pretending to seek peace while scheming to pounce at the right
moment. Just yesterday, Armenian officials were preaching about
their supposed readiness to ink a peace deal, yet today their
artillery thundered across the border, targeting Azerbaijani
positions. This wasn’t some fluke or accident — no way. It was a
calculated, cold-blooded act of aggression, a deliberate
provocation aimed at derailing the fragile peace process.
For years, Armenia has been playing a dirty game, bending public
opinion and spinning narratives to deceive the global audience. But
now the mask has slipped. Beneath all that diplomatic sweet talk
lies the same old Yerevan — cunning, manipulative, and bent on
fueling conflict. Armenian leaders behave like card sharks
shuffling marked decks, parading so-called “new initiatives” that
are nothing more than smoke screens for yet another military
escapade.
This latest move? It’s a slap in the face to anyone who believed
in constructive dialogue. Armenia isn’t just inconsistent — it’s
mocking the peace process, turning it into some twisted political
circus. Remember when Pashinyan grandstanded back in June 2024
about a so-called “Joint Mechanism for Investigating Ceasefire
Violations”? He knew damn well those words weren’t worth the ink
they were printed on. And when he proudly proposed a “mutual arms
control mechanism” in January 2024, it wasn’t about peace — it was
about stalling, distracting, and covering up Armenia’s real agenda:
rearming for war.
Armenian leadership is acting like an arsonist who sets a
building ablaze, and then screams the loudest about putting out the
fire. The worst part? Armenia’s not burning alone — it’s hellbent
on torching the entire region, dragging its Western backers into
the flames. The same Western players, mind you, who’ve been quietly
stirring the pot, determined to keep the South Caucasus on edge to
suit their own geopolitical ambitions.
Make no mistake — Yerevan doesn’t want peace. It craves revenge,
still licking its wounds from the crushing defeat of 2020. And in
this bitter thirst for vengeance, Armenia is willing to gamble with
its own people’s safety, once again pushing them into the line of
fire for the sake of political games.
But here’s the thing — Baku has had enough. Azerbaijan’s
patience has worn thin, and the next provocation will be met with
swift, decisive force. No half-measures, no warnings — just cold,
hard retaliation to remind Yerevan that playing with fire is a
deadly game. If Armenia thinks it can keep poking the bear without
consequences, it’s in for a brutal wake-up call. This time,
Pashinyan’s reckless stunts won’t just backfire — they’ll explode
right in his face, and he alone will bear the blame for the
fallout.
Recently, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan
attempted some verbal gymnastics in response to accusations from
Azerbaijan’s foreign office spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada. Hajizada
had slammed Armenia for violating the ceasefire and ditching its
commitments. Badalyan’s response? A classic dodge — claiming that
Yerevan would “consider” Baku’s evidence only if the materials were
formally presented.
Come on. That’s nothing but stalling tactics. The honest move —
the responsible move — would’ve been to admit the violation, pledge
an investigation, and hold those responsible accountable. After
all, this isn’t Armenia’s first bloody misstep. On February 12,
2024, an Azerbaijani border guard was wounded by an Armenian sniper
— an incident that spiraled into a deadly exchange of fire. Four
Armenian soldiers paid the price, while another landed in a
hospital bed with an uncertain fate. That tragedy wasn’t just bad
luck — it was the product of blatant disregard for ceasefire
agreements.
Then there’s Badalyan’s so-called “Joint Mechanism” initiative —
a transparent PR stunt designed to mask Armenia’s vulnerability
after losing the war. Let’s be real — in the post-war reality, the
victor calls the shots, and the defeated side follows suit. Armenia
doesn’t get to dictate terms — not when it’s the one that dragged
the region into war in the first place.
Badalyan’s comments on the Minsk Group’s dissolution and
Armenia’s constitution were equally hollow. Sure, Yerevan played
along with scrapping the Minsk Group — a worthless relic of failed
diplomacy — but then tried to stir the pot with talk of
Azerbaijan’s stance on Western Azerbaijan. That’s no surprise —
Armenia is terrified of facing the unavoidable truth: the rightful
return of displaced Azerbaijanis to their ancestral lands.
Let’s not forget — back in 1987, thousands of Azerbaijanis were
brutally driven from their homes in Armenia during a wave of
pogroms and violence. Their return isn’t some wild land grab — it’s
a fundamental human right, a matter of historical justice. That
process should proceed with respect for Armenia’s territorial
integrity, but Yerevan’s refusal to even discuss the issue only
worsens the tension.
As for Armenia’s constitution, Badalyan had the nerve to
reference a September 26, 2024 ruling from Armenia’s Constitutional
Court, claiming there are no territorial claims against neighboring
states. Yet in the same breath, she accused Azerbaijan of mirroring
those same alleged ambitions — a desperate attempt to deflect
attention from Armenia’s own failures.
At the end of the day, Armenia’s back is against the wall.
Russia’s message is clear — Moscow won’t lift a finger for Yerevan
if conflict erupts. Washington? Focused elsewhere. Europe? Too
wrapped up in “deep concerns” to take meaningful action. Armenia is
running out of options.
The writing’s on the wall: Armenia must stop playing with fire.
It’s time for Yerevan to face reality — cease the provocations,
amend its constitution to align with peace agreements, engage with
the Western Azerbaijan Community about the rightful return of
displaced citizens, and acknowledge that the Minsk Group is dead
and buried. Delaying the inevitable, clinging to empty hopes of
foreign intervention, will only push Armenia closer to
disaster.
Armenia is once again walking a perilous tightrope, dangerously
pushing the region closer to renewed conflict. Despite signing
agreements that clearly outline mutual recognition of territorial
integrity between Armenia and Azerbaijan within the borders of the
former Soviet republics, Yerevan continues to play a reckless game
of deception. These agreements — which take precedence over
Armenia’s domestic laws — should have put an end to territorial
disputes. But let’s be real — expecting Yerevan to honor its
commitments is like expecting a fox to guard a henhouse. Armenia’s
track record is riddled with broken promises and deliberate
violations, always banking on shifting global politics or Western
backing to bail it out.
The big question now is — when Yerevan triggers its next
provocation, who’s going to step up to defend Armenia? Russia?
Unlikely. Moscow has already signaled it won’t put its neck on the
line for Pashinyan’s blunders. The U.S.? Washington’s got bigger
fish to fry. And Europe? Its predictable hand-wringing and “deep
concern” speeches will barely scratch the surface.
In short, Armenia is on its own — and it’s running out of cards
to play.
At this point, there’s only one rational path forward for
Armenia: stop the provocations, amend the constitution in line with
the peace agreements, sit down with the Western Azerbaijan
Community to discuss the rightful return of displaced Azerbaijanis,
and finally, accept that the OSCE Minsk Group is as dead as disco.
Delaying the inevitable or banking on foreign intervention will
only drag Yerevan deeper into the quicksand of instability.
Yet, despite these clear choices, Armenia is back to its old
tricks. The latest wave of cross-border shootings — a brazen act of
aggression targeting Azerbaijani positions — makes one thing
crystal clear: Yerevan’s public talk of peace is nothing more than
a smoke-and-mirrors show. This new wave of military adventurism
kicked off almost immediately after Armenia signaled its so-called
willingness to agree to Baku’s peace terms. Such a move isn’t just
illogical — it’s a clear demonstration of the chaotic,
inconsistent, and unreliable nature of Armenia’s foreign
policy.
Yerevan’s attempts to justify these provocations fall flat.
Recall when Pashinyan smugly proposed a “Joint Mechanism for
Investigating Ceasefire Violations” back in June 2024 — a PR stunt
designed to appease the international community rather than promote
real peace. Earlier, in January 2024, he pushed for a “mutual arms
control mechanism” and suggested a bilateral agreement with
Azerbaijan. These empty gestures weren’t about diplomacy — they
were decoys, crafted to distract the world while Armenia quietly
pursued its militaristic ambitions.
The reality is, that Armenia hasn’t given up on its dangerous
dream of a military comeback. Talk of revenge is alive and kicking
— not only among opposition figures and Pashinyan’s critics but
even within Armenia’s ruling elite. When Armenia’s former
“parliament speaker” — a relic of the long-gone terrorist regime of
the Karabakh separatists — ranted about “ethnic cleansing” in
Karabakh, “Azerbaijani aggression,” and “vandalism against Armenian
monuments,” it was clear Yerevan’s strategy was to keep the
conflict simmering, feeding the flames of instability to block
peace efforts.
And Armenia’s actions are making it clear: they’re preparing for
something bigger. Yerevan’s military build-up is ramping up at an
alarming pace. In the coming weeks, Armenia is set to conduct
large-scale military drills involving reservists — including both
experienced veterans and fresh recruits. On paper, these exercises
are labeled “routine” — but their scale and timing reek of a
calculated effort to prepare for escalation.
Armenia’s defense budget for 2024 tells the same story — 555
billion drams (over $1.42 billion), marking a 7% increase from the
previous year. Much of that money is going straight into military
modernization and weapons procurement. Armenia recently locked in
arms deals with France, securing shipments of armored vehicles and
artillery systems. Meanwhile, Yerevan is also negotiating with
India to purchase 84 units of the 155mm ATAGS howitzer systems.
On top of that, Armenia has been busy constructing a string of
heavily fortified military outposts along its border with
Azerbaijan — strategically positioned strongholds designed for
offensive maneuvers and capable of locking down key routes. These
positions are linked by an intricate system of underground tunnels
— a telltale sign of preparation for sabotage and guerrilla-style
strikes.
Armenia isn’t acting alone. Western backers are pouring
resources into Yerevan’s war machine, pushing their own
geopolitical agenda. France and India are feeding the beast with
weapon supplies and defense cooperation agreements. Armenia has
also effectively distanced itself from the Russia-led CSTO, halting
its financial contributions — a clear sign Yerevan is shifting
gears, aligning itself with Western powers.
In this volatile climate, Armenia’s aggressive militarization
paints a grim picture. Escalating border tensions, troop
mobilization, and reckless diplomatic antics all point in one
direction — Yerevan is laying the groundwork for another conflict.
And this time, the consequences could be devastating.
If Armenia continues down this road — stalling peace talks,
dodging constitutional reforms, and rejecting dialogue with
Azerbaijan over the rightful return of displaced citizens — it’s
not a question of if things will explode; it’s a question of when.
And when that happens, Yerevan will have no one to blame but
itself.
It’s no surprise that Armenia’s recent actions follow a familiar
pattern. Ever since its humiliating defeat in the 44-day war in
2020, Armenia has repeatedly resorted to military drills and
exercises — often timed suspiciously close to diplomatic talks or
peace negotiations. This calculated strategy reveals Armenia’s
two-faced political game: publicly paying lip service to peace
while secretly scheming for revenge and plotting provocations along
the border.
What’s crucial to understand is that Armenia’s intensified
military buildup isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s accompanied by a
wave of aggressive rhetoric — both from Armenia’s radical
opposition and figures within its ruling elite. In recent months,
Armenian officials have been busy spinning narratives about alleged
“Azerbaijani aggression,” using these fabricated claims to justify
their arms buildup. Yet in reality, it’s Armenia itself that’s
stepping up militarization — not Azerbaijan.
The rapid rearmament of Armenia’s military has become
particularly evident following arms shipments from Western states —
most notably France. Paris, while publicly championing “regional
security,” has quietly fueled Armenia’s militarization by supplying
weaponry that could easily be used in future provocations. This
includes armored vehicles, air defense systems, and firearms — arms
deliveries that gained momentum after Armenia’s crushing defeat in
Karabakh. Adding to concerns are reports that Armenian soldiers are
now undergoing military training in France and other European
countries, signaling deeper Western involvement.
On top of that, Western military advisors are actively coaching
Armenian forces on battlefield tactics and strategy — an alarming
indication that Yerevan may be laying the groundwork for yet
another round of violence.
This pattern of Armenian provocations aligns all too neatly with
a broader Western agenda aimed at preserving instability in the
South Caucasus. Following the 44-day war, Azerbaijan emerged
significantly stronger in the region, a development that rattled
certain Western powers that have long relied on regional
instability to maintain leverage.
For the West, a stable South Caucasus — with Azerbaijan
asserting its dominance and regional peace finally taking hold —
would undermine their strategic influence. That’s why Western
backers are quietly encouraging Armenia to keep tensions simmering.
By pushing Yerevan toward confrontation, they’re effectively using
Armenia as a pawn — a destabilizing force designed to sabotage the
peace process.
It’s a dangerous game, one where Armenia’s reckless provocations
are being carefully staged with Western support. The goal? To
derail any hope of lasting peace while ensuring the region remains
a geopolitical chessboard for Western interests.
In this volatile climate, Armenia finds itself walking a
tightrope — desperately trying to juggle competing pressures from
both internal hardliners and its Western patrons. On one side,
Armenia’s leadership faces mounting demands from radical
nationalist circles still seething over the crushing defeat in the
2020 war. These forces flat-out refuse to accept the new regional
reality and are pressuring the government to pursue a path of
confrontation and revenge. On the other side, Yerevan is bending
over backward to prove its loyalty to Western backers, hoping this
allegiance will unlock political support and financial aid.
This double game leaves Armenia in an incredibly unstable and
vulnerable position. By trying to appease both domestic hardliners
and foreign sponsors, Yerevan risks steering the country into
dangerous and unpredictable territory. Recent developments —
including military drills involving reservists, aggressive arms
acquisitions, and the increasingly militarized tone in Armenia’s
media landscape — all point to one troubling scenario: Yerevan may
be preparing to trigger new provocations along the border as part
of a calculated ploy to:
- Disrupt ongoing peace talks with Azerbaijan;
- Shift domestic political turmoil outward by manufacturing an
external conflict; - Signal to the West that Armenia is ready to serve as a
“frontline stronghold” in exchange for economic backing and
diplomatic cover.
This strategy is not only reckless — it’s a ticking time bomb.
Rather than embracing meaningful dialogue and peace initiatives,
Armenia appears determined to gamble with regional stability,
pushing the South Caucasus closer to the brink of conflict.
Public sentiment in Armenia underscores this dangerous mindset.
Polls reveal that a significant portion of Armenian society still
refuses to accept the fact that Karabakh is an inseparable part of
Azerbaijan. Making matters worse, Armenian authorities have
stubbornly resisted constitutional reforms that would formally
renounce territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Likewise, Yerevan
has failed to take steps toward officially withdrawing from the
now-defunct but legally unresolved OSCE Minsk Group — a move that
would signify Armenia’s commitment to moving past outdated conflict
narratives.
These patterns reveal a clear agenda: Armenia is deliberately
stalling the peace process. By fueling tensions at the border,
Yerevan is playing into a broader Western strategy designed to
sabotage potential reconciliation between Baku and Yerevan. Certain
Western powers, concerned about losing leverage in the South
Caucasus, are exploiting Armenia as a pawn to keep the region on
edge.
Given Yerevan’s dependence on Western support and its growing
alignment with anti-Azerbaijani interests, it’s unlikely Armenia
will adopt an independent and constructive foreign policy. Instead,
Armenia’s provocative behavior appears to be part of a calculated
strategy — one that relies on stoking instability in hopes of
regaining lost influence.
With such a volatile mix of internal instability, foreign
manipulation, and aggressive militarization, the chances of Armenia
genuinely committing to peace appear slim. The threat of fresh
escalation — potentially triggered by yet another Armenian
provocation — is becoming increasingly real.
