“It is, of course, the dominant issue,” Holm told POLITICO before his speech. After the attacks in Magdeburg and Aschaffenburg, he added, “that is also the dominant thing that you hear [from voters] at information stands — that things can’t go on like this, they can’t come to terms with this migration issue.”
Speaking to supporters, Holm described the arrival of migrants in Schwerin and the surrounding areas — including at a refugee center in the city — as posing long-term risks to the area’s identity and security.
“We have cities that have already shifted so much that you can hardly recognize them as Germany anymore,” he told the crowd. “And in Schwerin we are experiencing this progress — which is not progress at all, but of course a step backward — also developing in this way.”
Becoming more radical
No one knows yet which vision will win out in Schwerin. The website zweitstimme.org, which publishes election forecasts, sees a likely victory for Holm and the AfD.
That would track along with trends in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a whole, which show a marked shift toward the AfD and away from the SPD since the last federal election in 2021.
At that time, the SPD won 29 percent in the state, 11 points ahead of the AfD — but recent polling puts the AfD in a strong first-place position this time around, with 29 percent to the SPD’s 21 percent.
In addition to serving as a member of parliament, Alabali-Radovan leads the German government’s anti-racism efforts and serves as a top official on migration and refugee policy. She has personal experience with the issue: She was born in Moscow to parents from Iraq and the family came to Germany when she was a child.
“People have become more radical — the statements are more radical, more extreme. Sometimes you can’t even have a conversation anymore,” Alabali-Radovan said. “And that worries me, that it’s become so entrenched that you can’t accomplish much with conversations anymore. That’s the mood at the moment. And it reflects the public debate.”
