AMRO forecasts 4.2% growth for ASEAN+3 in 2025, driven by domestic demand and exports, though trade tensions and higher tariffs may impact external demand.
AMRO also highlights the importance of policy support in maintaining economic stability and fostering growth in the region. Structural reforms, investment in infrastructure, and digital transformation are expected to play a pivotal role in sustaining momentum. However, uncertainties surrounding geopolitical developments and global financial conditions remain key risks that policymakers need to address proactively.
ASEAN+3 Economies Anticipate Steady Growth
In its January 2025 update of the AREO, AMRO anticipates that the ASEAN+3 economies will maintain a growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2025. This projected growth is attributed primarily to strong domestic demand and robust export activities within the region. Despite this positive outlook, there are significant challenges that may impact the region’s progress, notably the rising trade tensions.
Rising Trade Tensions Pose Challenges
The escalation of trade tensions, characterized by the imposition of higher tariffs, poses a significant threat to external demand for the ASEAN+3 economies. These tensions could potentially lead to a reduction in trade volumes, affecting the overall economic growth. However, the region’s focus on bolstering domestic markets is expected to help mitigate some of these external pressures.
Regional Strategies for Sustained Growth
To address these challenges, the ASEAN+3 economies are likely to emphasize strengthening intra-regional trade and investment linkages. Policymakers are also expected to implement strategies that enhance economic resilience against external shocks. These efforts aim at ensuring the region’s growth remains stable at the forecasted rate, even amidst global economic uncertainties.
