Real estate market: moderate price growth expected
Keystone-SDA
Swiss property prices rose modestly in 2024, according to a quarterly barometer – a trend that is expected to play out again this year.
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In 2024, apartment prices rose by 2% year-on-year, while single-family home prices increased by 1.2%, according to a press release issued on Monday by the RealAdvisor platform, which specialises in online property valuations. For the third year running, apartment prices rose faster than those of single-family homes.
Despite the annual increase, the fourth quarter of last year saw a slowdown. Apartment prices fell slightly by 0.1%, while single-family homes recorded only a marginal increase of 0.1%.
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The period from October to December showed marked regional differences. Cities such as Schaffhausen (+1.8%), Winterthur (+1.3%) and Lausanne (+0.7%) led the way in apartment price growth, while Lugano (-0.7%), Lucerne (-0.4%) and St. Gallen (-0.5%) recorded price declines.
Variations at cantonal level were also significant. Schaffhausen (+1.7%), Geneva (+0.8%) and Zurich (+0.8%) saw strong growth in apartment prices. On the other hand, Basel-Stadt (-2.0%), Uri (-1.7%) and Basel-Landschaft (-1.2%) posted significant falls in apartment prices.
Single-family homes followed a similar trend. In the cantons of Jura (+1.2%), Thurgau (+1.2%), Geneva and Schaffhausen (+0.9%), prices rose, while in Basel-Stadt (-2.0%) and Basel-Landschaft (-1.0%), the trend was downwards.
Transactions down
While price growth was modest in 2024, the volume of transactions on the Swiss real estate market fell by 6%, marking the second consecutive year of contraction. Despite lower interest rates, activity levels remain well below the average of the last ten years.
Geneva illustrates this trend, with the number of real estate transactions falling by 31% between the third quarter of 2024 and that of 2023, the lowest quarterly figure in over a decade.
Properties are taking longer to sell. Single-family homes and apartments are now staying on the market 40% longer than two years ago, reflecting buyer caution and a more general slowdown in the market.
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A copy-paste of 2024
As for the outlook for 2025, Swiss real estate prices are likely to mirror the trends of 2024, with continued modest price growth and below-average transaction volumes. For RealAdvisor, the current market stalemate between buyers and sellers is unlikely to disappear any time soon.
Despite attractive mortgage rates, supply constraints, linked in particular to low construction activity, will continue to dampen market momentum.
“We therefore remain cautious and expect Swiss real estate prices in 2025 to keep pace with inflation,” said Jonas Wiesel, co-founder of RealAdvisor.
Translated from German by DeepL/mga
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