Asia-Pacific: The Impact of Escalating US Tariffs

With Trump’s return to the White House, the likelihood of US tariffs has increased. Here, we explore three scenarios where the Trump administration imposes stronger trade restrictions on China, the rest of Asia, and the world, including higher blanket tariffs.

In addition to tariffs on China, our current baseline assumes that Vietnam and South Korea will face targeted tariffs, given their large goods trade surpluses with the US.

Higher tariffs on China would significantly impact the entire region, as reduced US demand for Chinese goods would create ripple effects on other Asian producers. Vietnam would likely bear the brunt of these effects outside mainland China, whereas India, with its more domestically focused economy, would remain the least affected.