One of the most impactful games of the 2024 NFL campaign kicks off Sunday night in the Motor City, as the 14-2 Detroit Lions host the 14-2 Minnesota Vikings with the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed hanging in the balance.
The storyline is so good that the league flexed the game to primetime.
DraftKings Sportsbook opened Detroit as a 3-point favorite with a total of [O/U] 51, as the Lions and San Francisco 49ers were flying up the field this past Monday night. The total has rocketed even higher as of Friday.
There’s now a 56.5 in the market, the highest total all season.
“Just an awesome game,” professional bettor Adam Chernoff told FOX Sports.
“Can the Lions get stops? That’s absolutely the biggest question. The 49ers were getting whatever they wanted on offense [Monday] but turnovers bailed out the Lions. It’s been like that the last couple weeks.
“Some of the space they’re conceding in the secondary is admirable, but it is allowing teams to find a lot of space on the back end. Minnesota has been able to scheme up and get guys wide open for Sam Darnold all season.
“Detroit is determined to play man coverage behind a pass rush that’s been far less efficient than it was earlier in the year when everyone was healthy. So, can the Lions do enough in the secondary against this Minnesota offense?
“That’s the key.”
Both head coaches — Detroit’s Dan Campbell and Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell — are popular choices for NFL Coach of the Year and both men have shown the propensity to be rather aggressive offensively on fourth down.
Maybe Campbell will roll the dice on fourth-and-1 from his own 20.
Hit me.
“I understand Dan Campbell is a tough coach who bites knee caps,” FOX Sports betting analyst Geoff Schwartz said on this week’s “Bear Bets.” “But I didn’t like the way he handled [his starters] Monday night.
“He’s much smarter than that. He does smart football things inside games. But the way they handled [the San Francisco game] was not very smart. I thought the excuses he gave were pretty ludicrous.
“I think it will affect them on Sunday.”
Vikings vs. Lions: Who wins this historic game?
On the other side, Minnesota’s defense is metrically impressive, but there are some doubts about what the Vikings can do against elite attacks.
High-octane offense tends to trump solid defense these days and the Lions did rack up 391 yards of total offense in the first meeting, a 31-29 victory for Detroit in the Twin Cities. Lions’ kicker Jake Bates sealed the deal with a 44-yard field goal with 19 seconds left to go in regulation.
“Detroit’s offense has gotten whatever it’s wanted all season,” Chernoff continued. “This Minnesota defense, I think, is a little bit phony only because they’ve played with the lead more than any other team, which has made their run defense look a lot better than it is.
“Dan Campbell has been very aggressive taking the ball to start games to try to build the lead so they can play from ahead and lean on that run game. That’s paramount. Perhaps we see a little bit more willingness to gamble from [Vikings defense coordinator] Brian Flores to try and get off the field.”
How Sam Darnold resurrected his career with the Vikings
Prepare for the fireworks show.
I won’t make many Week 18 wagers due to a slew of backup quarterbacks getting starts and a handful of games where it’s almost impossible to handicap the true motivation. That said, I did bet some Vikings +3 -110.
Their offense is absolutely humming thanks to superb quarterback play from Darnold and I believe Minnesota wins more battles against Detroit’s defense.
SkoL.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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