NFL Week 17 kicked off with a couple of Christmas games that left a little to be desired.
The Chiefs got past the Steelers pretty easily, and the Ravens absolutely rolled the Texans.
Will the weekend give us more excitement? Perhaps, yes. So let’s dive into a few wagers that I like for some of the matchups left on the slate.
(All times ET)
SUNDAY, DEC. 29
Colts @ Giants (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
I don’t care how bad the Giants are — and they are bad — the Indianapolis Colts should not be a favorite of more than a touchdown against anyone in the NFL.
The Colts have seven wins. They’ve won two games by a single point, two games by three points, one game by five and another by six. They eventually won by eight points last weekend against the Titans, but were winning 38-7 before allowing 23 straight points to only win by eight.
So even if you believe that Indy wins, why would it be by seven points or more?
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has such high variance. He’s showcased some amazing throws, and he can use his legs, but he also throws crippling interceptions. He’s only completed 47% of his passes this season, and now this Florida kid who plays in a dome is going to windy, rainy and often miserable East Rutherford.
In other words, I just don’t buy the Colts offense in this game.
Now, the Giants defense is ranked 25th in points allowed, just a slight spot below the Colts defense. And speaking of the Colts defense, it’s not good. It is 23rd in points allowed and 29th on third down. It’s not a good unit and the Giants offense can’t play much worse than last weekend. It spotted the Falcons 14 points, so the final score looked worse than the play.
I would expect the Giants to play slightly better on offense, and if Richardson can have an off game in the weather, the Giants can cover
PICK: Giants (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points, or win outright
Josh Allen slides, Sam Darnold climbs up ‘Mahomes Mountain’ in Week 17
One wager I tend to make on Bills games when they are huge favorites is taking quarterback Josh Allen Under his rushing props.
Allen tends to cut back on the rushing when the Bills are playing bad teams and/or when they’re winning by a decent margin. The Bills are nearly 10-point favorites against an awful Jets team, and after a lackluster start against the Patriots last Sunday, I’d expect a good Bills performance.
So that means Allen will rush the ball less.
In a 21-point win against the Dolphins, he had two rushing yards. He had a single rushing yard in a 24-point win against the Titans. He had 18 in a blowout against the 49ers.
You get the point.
So I’ll take Allen under 30.5 rushing yards.
PICK: Josh Allen Under 30.5 rushing yards
Keyshawn Johnson hands out Christmas gifts to every NFL team
MONDAY, DEC. 30
Lions @ 49ers (8:15 p.m., ESPN/ABC)
The Lions have blasted bad football teams this season, so much so that it feels like they are a college team playing against FCS opponents.
They are playing another bad football team in Week 17.
The 49ers are out of playoff contention and just lost to the Dolphins by 12 last weekend. They are without so many key players that they just can’t compete against most teams they face. The Lions are one of those teams with which they should not be able to compete.
Also, this game is important for Detroit.
The Lions can either get one game closer to the No. 1 seed in the NFC if the Vikings or Eagles take a loss, or they have to win to keep pace with the Vikings so that their Week 18 matchup will be for the division and the top seed.
Will we see a supremely motivated Lions squad?
The 49ers are also not in a position to play spoiler. Those teams are often like the Panthers, meaning a young team that’s been playing good ball without the wins.
The 49ers are injured and completely missed their goals for 2024. They are dead inside. I like the Lions here.
PICK: Lions (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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