Key Takeaways
The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election will significantly impact US-Vietnam trade, investment, and defense relations, depending on whether it’s a second Trump term or a Harris presidency.
Under a second Trump term, businesses should prepare for the potential introduction of new tariffs and decreased opportunities for comprehensive trade deals, while a Harris presidency is likely to focus on enhancing trade relations and collaboration in emerging technologies and clean energy.
US-Vietnam diplomatic and defense relations are expected to continue developing, with potential challenges in navigating defense relationships with both the US and Russia, and the need to address geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea.
As Harris has served as Vice President under the Biden administration, her foreign policy will not stray far from President Biden’s, including her stance on relations with Vietnam. As such, the trajectory of Vietnam-US relations under a potential Harris presidency will not be drastically different from that under a second Biden term. Nonetheless, her potential accession to the highest office will open up new questions and possibilities for the relationship. Vietnam Briefing will continue to monitor events in the US presidential race and provide updated analysis of the potential impact on bilateral relations.
With both candidates having played a role in the two previous administrations, we have unique insight into how a second term for either candidate could shape the course of future US-Vietnam relations. We look at how US-Vietnam relations developed under the respective Trump and Biden-Harris administrations and discuss how the different outcomes of the 2024 US presidential election could shape future trade, investment, diplomacy, and defense cooperation.
Trade and investment relations: Trump and Biden report card
Trade relations under Trump
During his term in office, Trump reversed much of the progress on US-Vietnam trade relations made by his predecessor.
One such move was his decision in 2017 to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement negotiations, a key policy position of the previous Obama administration. The TPP, which consisted of 12 Pacific countries, including the US and Vietnam, would have helped to expand bilateral trade significantly by removing technical barriers to trade and reducing tariffs.
Trump’s decision to pull out of the TPP had ramifications that last until today. The TPP eventually evolved into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) without the US’s involvement, in the process decreasing the total GDP of members to US$10.1 trillion (without the US) from a potential US$28.7 trillion (with the US).
Moreover, by withdrawing from the negotiations (as well as other actions against free trade), Trump cemented an anti-globalist and anti-free trade sentiment within the US Congress, which has made it difficult for subsequent administrations to consider joining. Despite widespread support for the US’s accession by current members, the Biden administration has refrained from reentering negotiations, instead pursuing its own Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).
Read the original article : US-Vietnam Relations Under Trump Versus Biden
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