Ukraine, Russia and Belarus greet Trump’s return to the US presidency

The biggest worry surrounds Donald Trump‘s pronouncements on military support for Ukraine, which has been fighting a Russian invasion since February 2022. The former real-estate mogul (and convicted felon) has said more than once that he sees no reason for US taxpayers to pay to arm Ukraine and that he has a simple plan to end the war. In practice this would consist of forcing Kyiv to make concessions to Russia. In such a scenario, which would also involve a loosening of sanctions, Trump would effectively be gifting the Kremlin the time and resources to rebuild its military in preparation for a new attack. And perhaps this time, Ukraine would no longer be the only target.

That is why Volodymyr Zelensky was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his victory and to praise Trump’s approach to international affairs, which is supposedly based on the principle of “peace through strength”. Whether Zelensky believes in this himself is irrelevant. What matters is that the Ukrainian president understands that he needs to get to work as soon as possible with the material he has. This means currying favour with Trump, whose approach is based less on reason than on personal sympathies and animosities. In addition to his praiseful post on X, Zelensky also had a phone conversation with Trump, which he later described as excellent.

Perhaps Zelensky will win Trump’s heart on the basis of their shared status as outsiders at gatherings of world leaders. Or maybe Trump and his people can be persuaded that by giving the Russian war criminal what he wants, the US will look like a loser? Perhaps lobbying by the US arms industry, which is a big beneficiary of the war, will play a role? Such are the few levers of influence Ukraine has at its disposal. There is no guarantee that they will work.

When Trump won his first presidential election in 2016, champagne corks were popping in the Russian Duma. Literally: Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the late maverick of Russian politics, held a banquet to mark the occasion. The Kremlin believed that Donald Trump would be its man in the White House. The reality turned out to be more complex. Despite his avowed affection for Vladimir Putin, Trump did not pursue a pro-Russia policy. That’s why the mood in Moscow is more muted this time around. The independent portal Viorstka reported on 6 November that Putin congratulated Trump in private, via unspecified mutual acquaintances. Public congratulations were offered by Sergei Lavrov at the Russian foreign ministry, as well as by Dmitry Medvedev and the speakers of both Russian chambers of parliament.

Andrei Peretzhev, a Meduza correspondent known for having many contacts at the top of the Russian government, learned from them that the Kremlin still sees Trump as “its peasant”. Apparently Trump’s manner simply makes him more understandable than the Democratic elite. In reality, and notwithstanding Putin’s joking declaration of support for Kamala Harris before the election, the Kremlin was not rooting for either candidate. What it seeks is polarisation that will boil over into protests and riots, thus undermining America’s democracy.

Putin’s public congratulations to Trump finally came during a meeting of the so-called Valdai Club. At the end of a three-hour session, when asked if he would meet with the US president if the latter made such an offer, Putin replied that if Western leaders wanted to renew contacts with Russia, then he was ready. He took the opportunity to congratulate Trump. Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, when asked by journalists about official congratulations from the Russian presidency, had replied that there was no need because the US is a state that Russia sees as unfriendly.

Near Minsk on 7 November, on the margins of a wood-chopping championship (in which he was taking part), President Alexander Lukashenka of Belarus spoke extensively about Trump and his victory in the US presidential election. “Trump is a real powerhouse”, said Lukashenka. “He’s doing great, regardless of what I think of him. It was hard to believe he could win. There was the shooting, the pressure, they wanted to put him in jail and so on, but he got through. And he did it even after running unsuccessfully for president before. This is his personal achievement on behalf of the American people. From that point of view he is a good man.”

Lukashenka also mentioned Trump’s pledge to end wars, including the war in Ukraine. “If he succeeds, then we will apply for the Nobel Peace Prize, and he will get it”, gushed the Belarusian leader. “The hope is that he will keep his promise. But America is not Belarus. They might just forget about it or something.” Lukashenka added that the end of the war in Ukraine does not depend on Trump alone. “He will try to end the war, but it is not a unilateral process. You have to bring others along, possibly not only Russia. Very many countries are concerned.” Such were the thoughts of Belarus’s dictator, a usurper of his country’s presidency since 2020 who is now preparing for another “election”. It is due in late January 2025. His campaign slogan: “You have to!”

The Belarusian president’s official website reported that Lukashenko had congratulated Trump on his win a day after the US election. The dictator wished the new US president good health and sound political decision-making that will make America great again.

After the celebrations in the Russian parliament in 2016, there was champagne in the Polish Sejm (parliament) in 2024. Jaroslaw Kaczynski‘s right-wing populists, who lost power to a Donald Tusk-led coalition a year ago, could not contain their euphoria over this turn of events overseas. MPs of Law and Justice (PiS) loudly applauded and chanted the name of the new US president.

The party believes that Trump’s win gives it a political boost ahead of next year’s presidential election, increasing its chances of an early return to power. In the ranks of PiS, there are fantasies that Trump will attend a pre-election rally, or even that the current government might resign as a result of Trump’s win. A party that built its identity on resisting the Brussels dictatorship has no limits when it comes to showing off its servility towards Washington.

So what kind of friend will Trump turn out to be? We will find out as early as next year.

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