28 October 2026 | Thailand, ASEAN and Asian Markets
Thailand’s exports rise 24% extending the country’s export-growth streak to 27 consecutive months
Thailand’s exports grew 24% year on year to US$38.44 billion in September, extending the country’s export-growth streak to 27 consecutive months. However, imports surged 50.4% to a record US$44.30 billion, producing a US$5.86 billion trade deficit, according to figures released by the Commerce Ministry on Monday, 26 October. Export growth significantly exceeded economists’ expectations, but the import surge was even larger than forecast.
Key points
- Exports increased 24% to US$38.44 billion, supported by electronics, AI-related demand and agricultural products.
- Imports jumped 50.4% to a record US$44.30 billion, leaving a September trade deficit of US$5.86 billion.
- For January–September, exports rose 19.6% while imports increased 37.8%, producing a cumulative trade deficit of US$43.69 billion.
Electronics and electrical appliances remained important export drivers as international investment in artificial intelligence, data centres and technology infrastructure supported demand for components and equipment. Excluding oil-related products, gold and military goods, Thai exports grew 28.2% in September. Shipments to the United States, Thailand’s largest export market, rose 50.1% year on year, while exports to China increased 18.4%.
The import figures require a more nuanced interpretation than simply treating the deficit as a sign of economic weakness. Imports can include machinery, electronic components, raw materials and energy needed for manufacturing and export production. Nevertheless, the pace of import growth creates a significant gap between export earnings and spending on overseas goods. Whether these imports translate into stronger domestic production and future exports will be important in assessing the economic impact.
The Commerce Ministry has indicated that exports could grow by as much as 19% in 2026, above its earlier forecast, although energy costs, geopolitical tensions and weaker purchasing power in some markets remain risks. Thailand Business News: Trade and export coverage.
Why it matters: Thailand’s export sector is benefiting from the global technology investment cycle, but the widening trade deficit highlights the importance of understanding what is driving imports. Sustained export growth will be more beneficial to the broader economy if it supports domestic value creation, employment and investment rather than being offset by rising import costs.
China’s industrial profits accelerate, but technology gains mask weakness in domestic demand
China’s industrial profits grew 14.4% year on year in September, accelerating from 4.2% growth in August, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, 27 October. The stronger monthly result offers evidence of improving profitability across parts of the manufacturing sector, but the overall picture remains uneven. For the first nine months of 2026, industrial profits increased 15.5%, slightly below the 15.7% growth recorded during January–August.
Key points
- Industrial profits rose 14.4% year on year in September, compared with 4.2% in August.
- Profits in computer, communications and other electronic-equipment manufacturing increased 103.8% during the first nine months.
- Furniture-manufacturing profits fell 51.3%, highlighting the continuing divergence between export-oriented technology sectors and weaker areas of domestic demand.
The strongest gains came from industries linked to electronics, communications equipment and global technology investment. These sectors have benefited from demand for advanced hardware and components, reinforcing China’s role in international manufacturing supply chains. The results are consistent with the broader strength of technology-related investment, although strong profits in selected industries do not necessarily indicate a broad-based improvement in household consumption or business confidence.
Domestic-demand-dependent manufacturers continue to face pressure, with the furniture sector among the weakest performers. The contrast reflects a persistent challenge for Chinese policymakers: export-oriented production can support industrial activity, but weak consumption and intense competition can leave other companies struggling to maintain sales and margins. Export-focused businesses also face uncertainty from potential trade restrictions and external pressure associated with China’s growing trade surpluses.
China’s economy expanded 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, putting the country within reach of its 4.5%–5% annual growth target. Yet the gap between profitable technology manufacturers and weaker consumer-facing industries suggests that the sustainability of the recovery remains uncertain. Thailand Business News: China economic coverage.
Why it matters: China remains a major source of demand, competition and intermediate goods for Southeast Asian economies. Strong electronics production could support regional supply chains, including Thai manufacturers, while weak domestic demand and aggressive competition could intensify pressure on companies selling consumer goods or competing with Chinese producers.
Higher bond yields and persistent inflation put Asian banks under pressure ahead of earnings
Asian-focused banks are facing increasing pressure on profitability and capital positions as volatile bond markets, persistent inflation and currency movements complicate the outlook ahead of third-quarter earnings. In a report published on Monday, 26 October, Reuters said the effects of an early-month global bond sell-off were continuing to ripple through regional financial institutions. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5.34% before stabilising around 5.11%, while rising Japanese government bond yields added another source of pressure.
Key points
- Higher long-term bond yields can reduce the market value of banks’ bond holdings, weaken capital ratios and constrain fundraising.
- Japanese lenders are exposed to unrealised losses on longer-duration assets as government bond yields rise.
- Banks in Southeast Asia face additional risks from persistent inflation, foreign-exchange volatility and potential pressure on asset quality and funding.
When market yields rise, the prices of existing bonds generally fall. Banks holding substantial portfolios of longer-duration securities may therefore incur valuation losses, potentially affecting reported earnings, capital ratios and the capacity to raise funds. Analysts cited by Reuters warned that the effects could extend to dividend expectations and earnings forecasts, although strong underlying earnings and deposit bases may help some lenders absorb the shock.
The pressure varies across the region. Japanese banks face losses associated with rising domestic yields, while lenders in the Philippines and Indonesia are contending with inflation and foreign-exchange volatility that could affect borrowers’ repayment capacity and wholesale funding. Regional institutions with wealth-management businesses are also watching whether tighter scrutiny of offshore assets in China could slow some capital inflows into Singapore-based and international banks.
The immediate test will come as major lenders report quarterly results and investors assess whether earnings are strong enough to offset valuation losses and higher funding risks. The developments do not establish that every Asian bank faces the same degree of stress, but they highlight how changes in global bond markets can transmit financial pressure across borders. Thailand Business News: Markets coverage.
Why it matters: Thailand’s financial markets are exposed to changes in global yields, currency movements and regional investor sentiment. If financing costs remain elevated or market volatility increases, businesses could face tighter credit conditions even without a change in Thailand’s domestic policy rate. Banks’ capital strength and lending standards will therefore be important indicators to watch.
