BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Inflationary
pressures in Kyrgyzstan intensified in 2026 amid higher energy and
food prices as well as expansionary fiscal policy, the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its
September Regional Economic Prospects report.
“Inflationary pressures intensified amid higher energy and food
prices as well as expansionary fiscal policy,” the statement
said.
In response, the authorities introduced temporary fuel subsidies
estimated at approximately 1 billion Kyrgyz soms, retail fuel price
caps, excise tax deferrals and a one-year moratorium on tariff and
fee increases.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic has kept its policy
rate at 12% since February, while inflation accelerated to 11.5%
year on year in July 2026, compared with 8.8% a year earlier.
The EBRD projects real GDP growth of 8.7% in 2026 and 7% in
2027.
Trend estimates
suggest that inflation in Kyrgyzstan could gradually moderate as
energy and food price pressures ease and the impact of temporary
government measures becomes more pronounced.
Moreover, Trend’s
calculations indicate that under a scenario of improving supply
conditions and continued monetary restraint, annual inflation could
decline toward 8–9 percent in 2027 and 6–8 percent in 2028.
If inflationary pressures continue to ease, the National Bank
could gradually gain more room to adjust monetary conditions while
maintaining price stability. Lower inflation would also support
household purchasing power and create more predictable conditions
for businesses and investment.
