Dr. Mohamed Shareef Asees – PhD in Global Studies; MA in International Relations; BA in Political Science. Researcher and Lecturer in International Relations, Geopolitics, and Peacebuilding, based in Berlin, Germany.
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi movement raises a fundamental question about security in the Middle East: can military power deliver lasting peace, or does it risk perpetuating the very instability it seeks to overcome? What began as a struggle over Yemen’s political future has become a wider regional challenge, threatening Saudi Arabia’s security, economic ambitions and the stability of vital international trade routes.
For Riyadh, the dilemma is increasingly difficult. Failing to respond to attacks could weaken deterrence, but escalating military operations could invite retaliation and prolong the conflict. Diplomacy offers a possible alternative, although an agreement without credible security guarantees would be unlikely to endure. Saudi Arabia’s challenge, therefore, is not simply to defeat the Houthis militarily, but to create conditions in which renewed conflict becomes less likely.
A conflict without a lasting settlement
The Houthis emerged from northern Yemen as a political and armed movement rooted in Zaydi Shiite traditions. Their capture of the capital, Sana’a, in 2014 deepened Yemen’s political crisis. In 2015, Saudi Arabia led a military intervention in support of Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Years of fighting failed to restore lasting stability. A United Nations-brokered truce in 2022 reduced hostilities but left fundamental disputes over political authority and security unresolved.
The renewed fighting in 2026 illustrates the consequences of leaving these disputes unsettled. The Houthis remain capable of threatening Saudi territory, while Saudi-backed Yemeni forces continue to contest strategically important areas. The lesson is clear: reducing hostilities without addressing the underlying political conflict may pause a war, but it does not necessarily end it.
Saudi Arabia’s strategic dilemma
Saudi Arabia possesses substantial military resources, yet the Houthis have demonstrated how drones and missiles can challenge a more powerful opponent. This asymmetric approach allows a movement with fewer conventional capabilities to threaten infrastructure and impose considerable security costs.
The challenge is particularly significant for Saudi Arabia because its economic transformation depends on stability. Vision 2030 seeks to attract international investment, expand tourism and diversify the economy beyond oil. Persistent insecurity could undermine these ambitions by disrupting travel, increasing defence expenditure and weakening investor confidence.
Military retaliation may be necessary to protect the kingdom and discourage further attacks. However, it cannot guarantee that the Houthis will abandon their capacity or willingness to strike again. An escalating cycle of attack and retaliation could leave Saudi Arabia spending more on defence while remaining exposed to recurring threats.
This does not mean that Riyadh must choose between security and diplomacy. Rather, military deterrence and political engagement need to serve the same objective: reducing the likelihood of another confrontation. Without a credible diplomatic pathway, military pressure risks becoming an expensive strategy of containment rather than a route towards lasting security.
Bab al-Mandab: Why the conflict matters beyond Yemen
The conflict also has implications for international commerce because Yemen lies beside the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean. The waterway is a crucial link in the maritime route between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal.
Threats to shipping can force vessels to divert around southern Africa, increasing journey times, transport costs and insurance premiums. Such disruption demonstrates how instability in Yemen can affect economies far beyond the region.
Bab al-Mandab should not be confused with the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. The Houthis do not control Hormuz, but insecurity around either waterway can intensify concerns about energy supplies and maritime security.
For the Houthis, the ability to threaten shipping can provide strategic leverage. For Saudi Arabia and its international partners, protecting freedom of navigation is therefore an important security concern. Yet maritime protection alone cannot resolve the political divisions driving the conflict. Lasting stability requires addressing both the immediate threats to shipping and the wider struggle over Yemen’s future.
From escalation to negotiation
Three possible paths lie ahead.
The first is further military escalation. Saudi Arabia could intensify its response, while the Houthis continue attacks on Saudi targets and threaten maritime routes. This might impose additional costs on the movement, but it could also provoke further retaliation without producing a decisive outcome.
The second is prolonged confrontation. Neither side may achieve its principal objectives, leaving Saudi Arabia under continuing security pressure and Yemen caught in recurring cycles of violence. Such an outcome would also sustain uncertainty for regional trade and investment.
The third is a negotiated settlement. This would require more than a temporary ceasefire. Negotiations would need to address cross-border security, political representation, economic arrangements and credible guarantees against renewed attacks. Regional powers, including Iran, could help reduce tensions by supporting diplomatic efforts rather than contributing to further confrontation.
None of these paths is without difficulty. The parties have competing interests and limited trust. Nevertheless, negotiations offer the opportunity to turn temporary reductions in violence into a more durable political arrangement. The central test is whether military pressure can support meaningful diplomacy rather than undermine it.
Peace as a security strategy
Saudi Arabia has a legitimate responsibility to defend its territory and protect its population. At the same time, the Houthis cannot simply be excluded from Yemen’s political reality through military force alone. Any lasting settlement must address the security concerns of neighbouring states while respecting Yemen’s sovereignty and rejecting attacks on civilians.
The wider international community also has an interest in preventing the conflict from spreading and preserving safe maritime navigation. But these objectives cannot be achieved through military deployments alone; they require political arrangements that reduce the incentives for renewed violence.
Ultimately, Saudi Arabia’s success should not be measured only by its ability to retaliate against attacks, but also by whether it can reduce the threat of future ones. Credible defence remains essential, yet diplomacy is necessary to turn immediate security gains into lasting stability.
The choice is not simply between fighting and making peace. It is between a strategy that manages the conflict indefinitely and one that seeks to change the conditions sustaining it. For Saudi Arabia, the Houthis and the wider region, the search for peace is not a concession of weakness. It is a necessary investment in long-term security.
