The World Bank has upgraded Thailand’s 2026 growth forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 2.0%, citing stronger exports linked to the global AI boom, but warned that flooding, a potential severe El Niño and weak domestic adoption of AI could limit the benefits. The upgrade comes even as Thailand continues to face unusually heavy flooding, making the interaction between technology-driven exports and climate-related disruption a central issue for the economy.
Key points
- The World Bank now expects Thailand’s 2026 GDP to grow 2.0%, up 0.7 percentage point from its previous forecast.
- More than 70% of export growth in Thailand and several regional economies is linked to AI-related products.
- Only 12% of Thai firms had adopted AI by December 2025, highlighting a major productivity gap.
The World Bank says Thailand is benefiting from the same technology cycle lifting growth across East Asia. AI-related products account for more than 70% of export growth in Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, making electronics and technology supply chains an increasingly important source of external demand. The broader East Asia and Pacific region is now expected to grow 4.5% in 2026.
The weakness is that Thailand is much better positioned as a producer of AI-enabling goods than as an adopter of AI across its domestic economy. The World Bank’s survey found that only 12% of Thai firms had used AI by December last year, compared with 43% in the United States, and only 4% of Thai firms were paying for AI tools. Around 80% of Thai firms currently report no productivity gains from the technology.
Climate risks provide a second major constraint. The World Bank warned that a severe El Niño could produce greater agricultural and flooding losses than currently incorporated in its forecast. The comparison with 2016 is particularly relevant as Thailand enters a period of heightened flood risk, with agriculture and food production among the sectors most exposed to extreme weather.
For Thailand, the policy challenge is therefore increasingly two-sided: capture more value from the AI-driven export cycle while using AI to raise productivity in traditional sectors such as manufacturing, tourism and agriculture. The World Bank argues that wider adoption will require better digital infrastructure, skills, financing and a more supportive business environment rather than relying only on investment in high-tech export industries.
Why it matters: The upgrade to 2% is encouraging, but it does not fundamentally change Thailand’s low-growth position in Asia. The opportunity is to convert the current AI export boom into domestic productivity gains; the risk is that climate shocks and weak AI adoption leave Thailand dependent on a narrow slice of the global technology cycle.
Thailand Business News: Thailand Business News — Business coverage
