“The slope of the best-fit line is +0.15 per year,” Sharma wrote on X, describing the pace as “glacial”. At that rate, he said, India would take roughly seven years to move up by one percentile rank, assuming other countries continue to progress at their existing pace.
Gains have been uneven across four pillars
The underlying analysis examines India’s post-1991 trajectory through four broad pillars: economic prosperity, productive capability, external resilience and manufacturing.
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The data shows the strongest relative improvement in external resilience. India’s percentile ranking on this measure rose from 94 in 1991 to 98 in 2024. The pillar captures indicators including energy-import dependency, fuel imports, the current account, total foreign-exchange reserves and foreign direct investment.
Economic prosperity also improved, with its percentile ranking rising from 64 in 1991 to 75 in 2024. The measure incorporates indicators such as GDP per capita, labour productivity and consumption.
However, the picture is less encouraging for productive capability. The analysis places India’s ranking at 45 in 1991 and 42 in 2024, suggesting limited improvement relative to the rest of the world. The pillar considers factors such as merchandise exports, GDP per capita, productivity and the sophistication of economic activity.
Manufacturing shows a more positive trajectory, with the percentile ranking increasing from 14 in 1991 to 27 in 2024. However, the relatively low ranking indicates that manufacturing remains an area where India has considerable ground to cover globally.
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Domestic strength versus global integration
The analysis argues that India’s large domestic market has been both a strength and a potential source of an inward-looking bias. Strong domestic consumption can support growth, but it may also reduce the pressure on companies and policymakers to compete more aggressively in international markets.
This is particularly relevant for India’s trade performance. The analysis tracks merchandise and services exports, global export-market share, economic complexity and manufactured-goods exports. While India has developed globally competitive capabilities in services, pharmaceuticals and technology, its merchandise-export position remains comparatively modest.
Sharma’s broader message is therefore not that liberalisation failed, but that the gains have been uneven and the pace of relative improvement has been slow.
Thirty-five years after the 1991 reforms, India has moved higher on several measures, particularly economic prosperity and external resilience. But the percentile-based data suggests that becoming a substantially more globally integrated economy will require further progress in exports, manufacturing, productivity and economic complexity.
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