There are several barnburners on tap for NFL Week 4.
Here’s where I’m putting my money.
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Pittsburgh coach Mike McCarthy said he wanted to push the ball down the field more this year than the team did last year with Aaron Rodgers, and he has been true to his word so far. Rodgers’ average depth of target has been over 10 yards in two of the three games so far, including in a 30-27 win last week. I’ll go over the 38.5, as the Steelers take on a Browns team with some interesting young weapons and an underrated offense.
Hill’s Pick: Over 38.5
Don’t forget to set your alarms for this one, as we get our first 9:30 am ET kickoff of the season in London come Sunday. Both teams started 0-2 before winning in Week 3. With the winner getting to .500, I’ll take the 3.5 with the Commanders in what should be a close game.
Hill’s Pick: Commanders +3.5
It has not been pretty for the defending AFC champions, but it’s often a good idea to ignore the last thing you saw in the NFL to avoid overreacting. The Patriots will already be 3.5 games out of first place in the AFC East with a loss. They are desperate and getting 6.5 points. I’l bet on them to bounce back.
Hill’s Pick: Patriots +6.5
If the Titans aren’t the worst team in the NFL, they’re pretty close to it. At 0-3, their offense has been anemic, and I don’t expect it to improve this week in Baltimore.
Hill’s Pick: Titans Under 15.5
The quarterbacks for this game are familiar with each other. Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow were picked first overall, respectively, in back-to-back years (2020 and 2021), and also played against each other in the 2019 college football national title game. The Jaguars look like a contender and could easily be 3-0. In a toss-up game, I’ll take the points.
Hill’s Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Panic time could officially hit the Rams if they lose again this week and fall to 1-3. The Eagles have had their number recently, winning all four meetings since the start of the 2023 season, and winning in Philadelphia isn’t easy, especially considering the onerous travel the Rams have endured already this season.
Hill’s Pick: Eagles +3
The Giants are 2-1, but their offense has looked suspect since quarterback Jaxson Dart went down with a season-ending knee injury. With the total set at 44.5, I think we get a 23-20 type of game. I will go Under here considering the Giants’ lackluster offense.
Hill’s Pick: Under 44.5
The Cowboys’ defense was expected to be improved in 2026 after being dreadful in 2025, but we have yet to see that play out. The Cowboys’ elite offense and shaky defense make them a good Over team until proven otherwise.
Hill’s Pick: Over 48.5
The Jets lost and failed to cover last week vs. the Lions, but were tied with just a few minutes to go. Quarterback Geno Smith has played very well for the Jets, and I think they will keep it close this week against the Bears.
Hill’s Pick: Jets +3.5
Two desperate teams facing off here with each in dire need of a win. Undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels will make his first career start for the Buccaneers, and I expect points to be hard to come by.
Hill’s Pick: Under 38.5
The Vikings look to improve to 4-0 and are heavy favorites to do so against the hapless Dolphins. While it’s been an impressive start for the Vikings, they have struggled mightily on offense, and aren’t well-equipped to exploit the Dolphins’ weak secondary. Star wide receiver Justin Jefferson might be sidelined for this one, and 10.5 points is a lot to lay for a struggling Vikings offense.
Hill’s Pick: Dolphins +10.5
Raiders’ tight end Brock Bowers is one of the best, and perhaps, still one of the most underrated players in the league. Coming off of 13 targets, 10 catches and 116 yards in his season debut, expect another big game from Bowers.
Hill’s Pick: Brock Bowers Over 76.5 Receiving Yards
The Chargers look broken offensively and could not defeat the Bills last week despite their defense forcing five turnovers. I don’t look for them to do much offensively on the road, in a hostile environment against an angry Seahawks defense coming off an upset loss to the Commanders.
Hill’s Pick: Chargers Under 17.5
The 49ers are undefeated and have been ultra impressive so far, but as usual, the injuries are starting to pile up. In what should be a close game, I’ll take the Broncos to keep it close.
Hill’s Pick: Broncos +3
The Lions have played three games and they’ve all gone Over. With an elite offense and very suspect defense, I like another Lions Over.
Hill’s Pick: Over 51.5
The Saints gave up over 100 yards rushing last week and now face perhaps the most dynamic running back in the NFL. Look for Bijan Robinson to have another big game on the ground.
