That, indeed, has been the official Russian stance for some time: that what is happening in Ukraine amounts to a European war on Russia. It is a narrative that skips over the fact that in 2022 it was the Kremlin that launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that Russia continues to wage war there.
How far would Russia go to sever European support for Kyiv?
Is Moscow, for example, actively preparing to initiate military conflict in Europe with a Nato member state? That seems unlikely. After more than four-and-a-half years of war Russia’s army has not yet managed to occupy the whole of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, right next door to Russia.
Fighting Europe may not be the plan, but freaking it out, to reduce support for Kyiv, could well be the intention.
Listen to the messaging.
“If they continue this war, a European war with American help, against Russia, on Ukrainian territory, sooner or later we’ll feel the need to escalate,” warns prominent foreign policy strategist Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defence Policy.
“According to my scenarios, the first series of blows will be conventional,” he told me. “But if Europe does not surrender, unfortunately, we will have to go nuclear. There will be little left of some European countries.”
But if Russia went nuclear there would be a response from Europe, and nothing would be left of Russia, I suggest.
“No, there will be no response from Europe,” said Karaganov. “What, Britain will attack Russia with nuclear weapons? I hope you’re not that crazy. I’m sure the Americans are not that crazy.”
