The Swiss economy is likely to be growing faster than expected
Keystone-SDA
Economists at the KOF Institute at ETH Zurich have significantly raised their growth forecast for the Swiss economy for 2026. They are also more optimistic about the coming year. However, uncertainty remains high.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 1.9% this year, excluding international sporting events, as economists announced on Wednesday. Back in the summer, they had initially expected growth of just 0.8%. The KOF Institute now forecasts growth of 1.7% for 2027 (previously 1.5%) and 1.7% for 2028 as well.
“Despite the pressures caused by US tariff policy and higher energy prices, the global economy has so far proved resilient,” the report states. The Swiss economy, too, performed significantly more robustly than expected in the first half of 2026. The strong second quarter was a particular surprise.
At the same time, the national accounts have been revised upwards, according to the data, and thus paint a “significantly more favourable picture” of recent developments. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain high due to the situation in the Middle East, US tariff policy and rising bond yields.
Rising employment expected
The labour market presents a mixed picture. A more positive assessment emerges from the revised data and the surprisingly strong second quarter. Consequently, the KOF Institute now expects job growth of 1.5% in 2026, having previously forecast just 0.5% in the summer.
On the other hand, however, unemployment remains high. According to the economists, part of the recent rise in unemployment could therefore be “structural in nature”. One factor is the increased use of AI. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO definition), the annual average unemployment rate is expected to be 3.1% cent in both 2026 and 2027.
