In the last fortnight, Friedrich Merz’s party was beaten to first place in Berlin, pummelled in the polls in Saxony-Anhalt and pushed out of parliament altogether in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
A lifeline for Merz is that no-one, within his own centre-right CDU party, is yet willing to challenge the chancellor openly despite persistent rumours of a Kanzlertausch (chancellor swap).
But he is on thin ice, with record low approval ratings among voters who often describe him as arrogant and out of touch.
It is a problem that in government circles is sometimes more politely referred to as a “communication” issue.
Those who back the Chancellor say it is time to double down on much-needed reforms, alongside its centre-left SPD coalition partner, and find a better way of talking to people.
Swapping chancellors is not the answer as anyone would face the “same challenges”, argues Jürgen Hardt, foreign policy spokesperson in parliament for Merz’s CDU and its sister party, the CSU.
Hardt pointed out that the CDU/CSU fared far better in other regional elections earlier this year, when we spoke minutes after Merz addressed party lawmakers at a closed-door meeting in the Bundestag.
“I think Friedrich Merz knows about his deficits,” says Hardt. “He will work on him and we will work on us as (a) party. And hopefully we will convince the people in the next months that we are on the right way.”
Merz came to power in 2025, promising to get tough on immigration and boost Germany’s ailing economy.
He appeared to offer a dynamism that might act as an antidote to the former dull, unhappy drumbeat of centre-left leader Olaf Scholz’s bickering three-way coalition.
