Local elections are taking place in two German states on Sunday which could increase the political pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Opinion polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommerm suggest Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is at risk of damaging defeats, which would raise further questions about the chancellor’s future.
These latest elections come after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won a major victory in the state of Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago, while the CDU saw its vote halved.
There has been speculation in Germany that Merz could be replaced as chancellor mid-term unless the CDU’s political fortunes improve.
He has said he will carry on but is facing poor approval ratings amid rumours of a so-called chancellor swap, though his challengers are “still hesitating”, writes German news site Tagesschau, external.
According to the polls, Merz’s conservatives could lose power in Berlin as it tussles with Die Linke (The Left) over first place.
Meanwhile in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU has only just been hovering above the 5% threshold needed for a party to enter the state parliament. It could spell their worst ever result in a state election.
How did it come to this after just 16 months in power? Friedrich Merz is having to answer for the tumbling popularity of his own party, while the political force that he aimed to counter – the AfD – continues its rise.
Some branches of the AfD are classed as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence, a designation it strongly rejects.
But its anti-immigration, Russian-friendly, Germany-first agenda has found fertile ground in the country’s former communist east.
The AfD is hoping to build on its recent landslide win in Saxony-Anhalt by topping the polls in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
However, the centre-left SPD has staged a late comeback to be in contention for the top spot through its lead candidate, Manuela Schwesig.
Currently the state premier, Schwesig is trying to sweep up the anti-AfD vote as she bills herself as the “Die Frau gegen Blau” – “Woman against Blue”, the AfD’s party colours.
But her local popularity belies the far poorer fortunes of her national party which is locked in a loveless coalition with Merz’s CDU.
