BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 19. Investment in
fixed capital in Tajikistan increased by 18.4% year-on-year from
January through June 2026, with private-sector capital expenditure
rising 1.5 times.
This was announced in a report published by the Eurasian
Development Bank (EDB)
According to the EDB’s latest macroeconomic review, investment
activity remains an important driver of Tajikistan’s economic
growth. The overall increase in fixed capital investment was
recorded across all sources of financing during the first half of
2026.
The bank noted that private-sector capital expenditure became
the main driver of the investment process, increasing 1.5 times
year-on-year. Most of these investments were directed toward
housing construction.
State investment also increased during the reporting period,
rising by 7.9% year-on-year from January through June 2026,
according to the EDB.
At the same time, foreign investment declined by 31.4%
year-on-year during the first six months of the year.
The EDB said Tajikistan’s economy continues to maintain high
growth rates, supported by resilient domestic and external demand
and the development of the production sector.
The bank previously reported that Tajikistan’s GDP increased by
8.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. The EDB expects the
country’s economic growth to reach 8.3% for the full year.
Trend’s analysis
indicates that continued investment activity, particularly from the
private sector, could support Tajikistan’s economic expansion over
the medium term, while the gradual development of the domestic
investment base could help sustain capital formation.
Based on the EDB’s 8.3% GDP growth estimate for 2026, Trend’s
indicative calculation assumes economic growth of around 7.8% in
2027, 7.4% in 2028, 7% in 2029 and 6.7% in 2030.
Using 2025 as an index of 100, the calculation puts the
indicative real GDP level at approximately 108.3 in 2026, 116.7 in
2027, 125.4 in 2028, 134.2 in 2029 and 143.2 in 2030. This would
mean an increase of approximately 43% in the real size of
Tajikistan’s economy between 2025 and 2030.
If investment activity remains supportive, capital formation
could continue contributing to economic growth alongside domestic
consumption, production and exports. Private-sector investment is
likely to remain particularly important as the economy expands and
demand for housing and related infrastructure increases.
At the same time, the decline in foreign investment highlights
the importance of maintaining favorable conditions for external
capital inflows, which could complement domestic investment and
support larger-scale projects.
These figures are Trend’s indicative calculations based on the
economic dynamics reported by the EDB and its 2026 GDP growth
estimate and do not represent an official forecast by the EDB or
the Government of Tajikistan.
