When the season began, FanGraphs projected the Rays to finish last in their division and the Brewers to win 83 games.
Now, with two weeks left in the regular season, the Brewers (93-57) and Rays (90-59) have already punched their tickets into the postseason and look to secure the top seeds in their respective leagues.
Still, no team is infallible, and even the best clubs in baseball have their flaws. Here are our latest contender rankings, along with one reason for optimism and pessimism for every team on the list.
(Note: Only teams within five games of a playoff spot as of Monday morning are included in our rankings. The Marlins, Cardinals and Twins were knocked off the list this week.)
They’re only here by default because the AL West is putrid enough that a team 10 games under .500 is just five wins behind the division leader. We know the offense has been a problem all year, but a rotation that should be among the best in baseball has an ERA over 5.00 for the past month. The only real reason for optimism is the schedule; seven of Seattle’s last 12 games are against the Angels.
Remember when they got up to .500 at the end of August? Well, the O’s have gone 3-9 since then and have the lowest slugging percentage and OPS in baseball in September. Third baseman Coby Mayo’s late-season resurgence has been a bright spot amid the slide, though. He has the highest OPS against left-handed pitching of any qualified hitter in the sport.
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Coby Mayo’s late-season power surge has been a bright spot for the Orioles. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Corey Seager is heating up, and Nathan Eovaldi and Josh Jung were just activated from the injured list. None of them, however, can address a bullpen that has been a problem all year and nearly cost the Rangers their latest series win in Arizona.
Vladdy finally did it. It’s almost unfathomable that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t have a home run at home all year until Sunday, in the Blue Jays’ 150th game of the season. But he finally went deep as part of a four-hit day, and maybe that provides a spark. Their postseason push is not made easier by the fact that their besieged rotation lacks depth behind ace Dylan Cease.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. watches his first home run of the season at Rogers Centre leave the yard on Sunday. (Photo by Michael Chisholm/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Despite the Astros’ many flaws, having Yordan Alvarez playing at an MVP level always provided hope. However, Alvarez is hitting just .238 with three home runs over his past 31 games and is now dealing with an ankle injury that forced him out of two games this weekend. His absence underscored the Astros’ lack of depth as they got swept by the AL-best Rays.
The reason for optimism in Houston? The Astros play in the AL West, and their pitching has been better than expected in September (or, at least it had been until Sunday).
As terrific as the bullpen is — and it is terrific, boasting the highest strikeout rate in MLB this season and a 2.24 ERA in September — an inconsistent starting rotation (6.33 ERA in September) and anemic offense (29th in OPS this season) make it tough for this club to find any consistency.
Rookie Travis Bazzana is heating up at the right time, though, and Steven Kwan is having a much better second half. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Guardians doing anything of note unless or until José Ramírez finds another gear.
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José Ramírez fractured the hamate bone in his left hand in mid-June and has struggled to regain his form at the plate since his return in late July. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
The South Siders’ ability to mash is what got them to this point, but they’ve scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball in September and rank 29th in OPS this month. Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery are all ice-cold at the same time. Meanwhile, the deadline addition of Luis Castillo has done nothing to help the rotation.
On a positive note, they rank sixth in MLB in home runs on the year, and adding rookie Hagen Smith to the bullpen in a multi-inning role has provided more stability to a problem area. Maybe the offense finds it again before it’s too late.
Arizona boasts the lowest team ERA in the NL this month, and the D-backs’ rotation suddenly looks like it might be a strength now that Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka are all back from injury. The offense, however, has yet to put it all together (21st in OPS this season). It doesn’t help that Corbin Carroll’s back is banged up or that the D-backs did little to help their lineup at the deadline.
The Padres are doing what they need to do, beating up on lesser teams to work their way into the playoff mix. It already looks like it’ll be a two-team battle between them and the D-backs for the NL’s final playoff spot, but at this rate, either could also end up the No. 4 or 5 seed.
The deadline additions of Casey Mize and Robbie Ray have not exactly worked out, but if Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill continue to hit the way they are now, that’s a trade-off the Padres might take.
Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle have a combined 1.15 ERA in September. That should get the Red Sox excited about October. Less exciting? Their offense still isn’t inspiring a ton of confidence. And after going 3-3 this week against the Angels and Royals, the Red Sox now have to finish the season against four contending teams (Rangers, Rays, Guardians, Cubs).
While the lineup hasn’t looked quite as dynamic lately — Chicago scored 12 runs total while getting swept by the first-place Brewers last week — the Cubs still have the best offense (No. 1 in OPS and wRC+) and defense (No. 1 in defensive runs saved and outs above average) in baseball this season, and Alex Bregman is playing his best baseball at the right time. That’s a heckuva starting point for any postseason hopeful.
The problem? The pitching still lacks reliability and playoff-caliber stuff both in the rotation and the bullpen even after a medley of deadline moves.
Aside from a clunker in Cristopher Sánchez’s last start, the Phillies’ rotation has been dynamite in September. The bullpen, meanwhile, is another story. And as good as Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm have been at the plate lately, the depth of the lineup remains a concern. The Phillies have to hope Jesus Luzardo’s stiff shoulder is only a temporary issue, because a lot is riding on that rotation carrying the team next month.
A number of important pieces in the Yankees’ lineup (e.g. Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia Jr.) look great right now. The biggest superstar, however, is still finding his way. Aaron Judge is 3-for-17 with nine strikeouts and no extra-base hits since returning from the injured list.
There’s a similar situation going on in the rotation, as Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler, Carlos Rodón, Max Fried and Will Warren have combined for a 1.29 ERA in September while Gerrit Cole has allowed seven homers in 16.2 innings this month. If they can get Judge and Cole right by October, there’s obviously a lot to like here.
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Aaron Judge has started slowly at the plate since his return from the stress fracture in his rib that had kept him out since late April. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images)
Questions loom about the depth of the Braves’ rotation behind ace Chris Sale come October, but deadline addition Tyler Mahle (1.25 ERA in seven starts) is providing more optimism. Overall, the Braves’ lineup hasn’t exactly torn the cover off the ball lately; however, Ronald Acuna Jr. is looking like a star again. That might matter more than the rest of the offense’s September cold spell.
A top three of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell might render all the Dodgers’ other problems moot, but the bullpen isn’t nearly as reliable as the top of the rotation. In addition, some encouraging signs lately from Teoscar Hernández and Kyle Tucker — plus the spark provided by top prospect Josue De Paula — can’t make up for the fact that both Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are banged up at a brutal time.
With Shane McClanahan on the shelf, the Freddy Peralta resurgence is coming at the right time. Peralta has a 0.78 ERA over his last four starts, and along with Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Ian Seymour and potentially McClanahan (if he’s healthy), there should be enough capable arms for the pitching to be a strength.
The Rays’ offense, meanwhile, ranks first in batting average and second in steals, but it remains to be seen how their contact-heavy approach — they rank 21st in homers, 28th in expected slugging percentage and 29th in hard-hit rate — will play in October. There’s a lot riding on the power of Junior Caminero.
It still would have been nice if they had added another impact bat at the deadline, but their lineup is leading MLB in every slash-line category in September, and Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio and William Contreras all look capable of carrying an offense right now. Strangely, considering how masterful their entire pitching operation is, the Brewers can’t feel supremely confident about their options to start games in October apart from Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson.
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